Every morning, millions of people around the world start their day with a cup of coffee. An apparently banal routine which, however, hides an increasingly fragile supply chain. Behind that drink there is in fact an economic ecosystem that involves many small farmers, scattered across a narrow tropical band of the planet. And that system is creaking under the weight of rising heat.
A new analysis from Climate Central has highlighted how climate change is already impacting global coffee production. The researchers examined daily temperatures recorded between 2021 and 2025 in 25 producing countries – which together cover around 97% of the world’s supply – compared them with those that would have been recorded in the absence of carbon pollution.
The results are alarming: all 25 countries analyzed have experienced an increase in days with temperatures above 30°C, the threshold beyond which the growth of coffee plants is seriously compromised. The five largest producers in the world – Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, responsible for 75% of global coffee – have accumulated an average of 57 extra days of damaging heat each year due to the climate crisis.
Why heat is so dangerous for coffee
Coffee plants are very delicate, shaped by centuries of evolution in specific climates. The arabica variety, which represents between 60 and 70% of world production and is the most appreciated for its quality in the cup, begins to suffer already around 25°C and above 30°C it suffers severe damage: flowering is reduced, the beans develop poorly, the plant becomes more vulnerable to parasites and diseases.
Even robusta, which is more resistant to heat, has its limits and temperatures constantly above 30°C make its growth less than optimal. In practice, there is no commercial variety that emerges unscathed from increasingly frequent and prolonged heat waves.
The most affected countries
Brazil – the world’s leading producer with 37% of global supply – recorded 70 additional days of damaging heat per year compared to the no-emissions scenario. The state of Minas Gerais alone, the beating heart of Brazilian cultivation, has accumulated 67 more.
Indonesia, with 6% of world production, is the country with the most marked relative increase among the large ones: 73 extra days. Followed by Vietnam (+59), Colombia (+48) and Ethiopia (+34). If we broaden our gaze to all 25 countries, the negative record goes to El Salvador, with 99 additional days of temperatures above the critical threshold.
Skyrocketing prices
It is no coincidence that coffee prices hit record levels in December 2024 and then again in February 2025. According to the World Bank, between 2023 and 2025 the prices of the arabica and robusta varieties almost doubled. Extreme weather in key growing regions is at least partly responsible for this surge: Droughts, heat waves and erratic rainfall reduce crop yields and put pressure on the entire supply chain.
Those who suffer the most are small farmers, who produce between 60 and 80% of the world’s coffee but who in 2021 received just 0.36% of global funds intended for climate adaptation. For these families, coffee, often grown on less than five hectares of land, is not a choice but the only source of income.
In Ethiopia – the historical homeland of coffee, where over 4 million families depend on this crop – small producer cooperatives are already looking for solutions. The Oromia Coffee Growers Cooperative Union (OCFCU) has distributed low-emission stoves to its members to reduce pressure on forests, which serve as natural shade shelters for arabica plants. But without adequate funding, local solutions are not enough.
What can be done
Research suggests some coping strategies. Growing coffee in the shade of taller native trees reduces exposure to direct heat and offers additional ecological benefits: it enriches the soil, protects biodiversity and provides habitat for birds. It is not the most profitable solution in the short term – plantings in full sun produce more – but it is the most resilient.
In the long term, the coffee map could shift: some areas that are too hot today will become unproductive, while higher altitude areas, previously unsuitable, could become cultivable. But this scenario, in addition to implying risks of deforestation, does not guarantee a painless transition for those whose roots are already rooted in a land that is overheating.
The structural response, scientists and growers agree, is only one: reduce CO₂ emissions. Every cup of coffee we drink is linked, in some way, to the amount of carbon we put into the atmosphere.
