With the attack on Iran, “We expect high volatility in energy prices again until tensions subside”, says the delegate of the president of Confindustria per l’Energia, Aurelio Regina, in a hearing on the bill bill at the 10th commission of the Chamber.
What does it mean? How much will the bills increase? And why?
In fact, millions of Italian families risk seeing electricity and gas costs skyrocket in the coming weeks.
Military escalation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are already having concrete effects on energy markets. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil and almost 30% of global LNG trade pass through there: a reduction in flows – or even just fear – is enough to trigger a surge in prices.
Making the situation worse was the suspension of LNG production announced by QatarEnergy, after attacks on energy infrastructures. Qatar is worth around 18–20% of global liquefied gas trade: when liquefaction (i.e. the process that allows transport by ship) stops, international supply shrinks and markets react immediately.
The European reference is the ICE Dutch TTF in Amsterdam. After the latest announcements, the future on gas (derivative contracts which oblige the parties to buy and sell a certain quantity of natural gas at maturity, at a pre-established price) recorded very sharp increases during the day (over +50% intraday), approaching the highs of the last 52 weeks. In the previous days, a jump close to +39% had already been seen, with prices around 44–45 €/MWh.
Translated: a period of strong volatility awaits us. Which does not automatically mean bills +40% from tomorrow, but that the raw material is returning to critical levels and this will be reflected in the next tariff updates, especially for those who are still in the service with gradual protections or with indexed offers.
Petrol and diesel: immediate increases
The effects on oil and fuel are more rapid. Average prices have already reached approximately:
If tensions remain high, further growth is not ruled out. Estimates speak of increases of up to 30–40% on transport costs in the event of a prolonged scenario.
For families, according to Federconsumatori, the overall impact between fuel and indirect price increases could exceed 160–180 euros per year.
The shopping cart and bills
Road transport affects almost the entire food supply chain. If diesel increases, logistics costs also increase. Initial estimates speak of over 100 euros more per year in food expenditure per household, in a scenario of prolonged price increases.
And on the bill front, obviously the increase in gas is reflected directly on domestic gas supplies and indirectly on electricity, because a significant share of Italian electricity production depends on gas.
We are not (for now) at the peaks of 2022, but, according to experts, the risk is a new cycle of autumn price increases if the crisis does not subside quickly and if LNG supplies remain limited.
What can we do now?
- Check our electricity and gas contract: check whether it is fixed or variable price and when it expires
- Evaluate any alternative offers, without being pushed by haste or panic
- Reduce structural consumption, where possible: thermal insulation, intelligent heating management, efficient appliances
- Reduce dependence on private cars, if possible, to limit the impact of fuel
In all of this, we must say that the lesson is clear: as long as Europe remains dependent on unstable energy routes, any geopolitical crisis could translate into a blow to families. The energy transition is not only an environmental choice, but it is also a question of economic security.
