Italian oil finds itself faced with a situation that is anything but simple. As the new olive oil campaign approaches, large quantities of product from the previous season still remain in our country’s warehouses and, at the same time, prices recognized at origin have dropped drastically.
The situation is illustrated by data from the national agricultural information system, which has also been updated in recent weeks. At the end of July there were 233,377 tonnes of olive oil in Italian warehouses, 43.9% more than in the same period in 2025, according to the latest report “Oil mill Italy” of the ICQRF, the Central Inspectorate for the protection of quality and repression of fraud in agri-food products of the Ministry of Agriculture.
But stocks, in the meantime, have decreased. At the beginning of September there were still almost 200 thousand tonnes of oil remaining in Italian silos, of which around 88 thousand were extra virgin, according to data reported by Felice Assenza, head of the MASAF ICQRF department, during the “L’Isola del Tesolio” conference.
The problem of Italian oil stocks
At the end of June, overall inventories were in fact equal to 258,480 tonnes, falling to 233,377 at the end of July. At the beginning of September, however, it reached a level close to 200 thousand tonnes.
The problem is therefore not that oil is at an absolute standstill: stocks are decreasing, but remain high while the new olive oil campaign is now upon us.
And this can create pressure on the market, because producers and operators in the supply chain have to find space for the new oil while a significant part of that from the previous campaign is still present in the warehouses.
The price of extra virgin olive oil at origin is almost halved
Added to the high inventories is another difficulty for producers and mills: the sharp drop in prices. According to ISMEA data, in July 2026 the national average price of extra virgin olive oil at origin was 5.12 euros per kilogram, with a decrease of 15.2% compared to June and 46.7% compared to July 2025.
It is important to clarify what this number means. This is an average price at the origin, therefore not the price we find in the supermarket. And there is no single price for Italian oil, prices change based on the area, quality, origin and denomination.
However, the data clearly shows the direction of the market: compared to a year ago, extra virgin olive oil is now traded at much lower values at source.
A lower price isn’t necessarily bad news for shoppers. In theory, in fact, a reduction in prices at origin could contribute over time to making oil on the market less expensive.
For those who produce it, however, the situation is very different. Italian olive growing has to deal with harvesting, labor, energy, transport and olive grove management costs that do not disappear when the price of oil drops. And the problem is particularly delicate for situations characterized by small plots and traditional olive groves, where the mechanization of harvesting is more difficult.
When prices fall while costs remain high, producers’ economic margins can therefore be significantly reduced.
The “Olivicultural Pride” Committee has also brought these difficulties to the institutional table. On 6 September, in Taranto, a delegation met with the Undersecretary of Agriculture Patrizio La Pietra to discuss the situation of producers and mills, the financial tensions along the supply chain and possible support measures.
Foreign competition increases the pressure
In a European market in which prices have fallen, the Italian product must also compete with that coming from other large producing countries, in particular Spain and Greece.
But here too it is important not to reduce everything to the simple contrast between “Italian oil” and “foreign oil”. The price differences depend on many factors: production costs, yields, size of the companies, organization of the supply chain, characteristics of the olive groves and market conditions.
The problem reported by producers is therefore above all that of the difficulty of supporting the costs of Italian olive growing when prices at origin drop so much.
The “Olivicultural Pride” Committee also speaks of market conditions that would penalize the national product compared to that coming from abroad and denounces the entry of oil at particularly low prices.
What the producers ask for
Faced with this situation, Orgoglio Olivicolo asked the Government for support measures for the supply chain, including a discussion with large-scale distribution and interventions to encourage the disposal of stocks and deal with the new campaign.
Among the requests made by the Committee are a permanent table with the main large-scale retail chains, measures to encourage the disposal of stocks and a purchase price that at least allows the costs incurred by farmers to be covered.
The requests arrive at a particularly delicate moment: on the one hand there are still large quantities of oil in the deposits, on the other the producers must prepare for a new season by once again incurring the costs of harvesting and processing.
What could happen in the next few months
The situation in the coming months will depend above all on the combination of stocks still present, the quantity of new production and the trend in prices.
It will be necessary to understand how much product will actually be able to be sold before the product from the new campaign enters the market and what the quantity of the next production will be. Only then will it be possible to better assess whether the current pressure on prices will be temporary or whether it will continue into the coming months.
For now, however, the data tells a precise situation: oil stocks in Italy, despite having decreased compared to previous months, remain high on the eve of the new campaign, while the average price of extra virgin olive oil at origin has fallen by 46.7% in a year.
And just as we continue to see bottles at very different prices on supermarket shelves, an important game is being played at the base of the Italian supply chain: that of the economic sustainability of those who produce that oil.
