A 100 euro electricity bill could drop to 90, a 150 to 135. This is, in concrete terms, the possible effect of the 10% cut in electricity bills announced by the Government, after the preliminary agreement reached with the European Commission. The agreement provides for the introduction of a ceiling on the price of gas used by power plants to produce electricity, with the aim of lowering energy costs and, consequently, lightening the bills of families and businesses. The mechanism, however, has yet to be defined and the first benefits could only arrive from 2027.
In fact, it is not an already approved discount, nor an automatic reduction guaranteed to all families. The mechanism still needs to be defined in detail, pass European controls and translate into a new decree expected by the end of 2026. If everything proceeds according to forecasts, the effects could arrive from January 2027, especially for those with a variable price electricity contract. Those who signed up for a fixed price offer, however, may not see immediate changes.
This was also explained by the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, who indicated a possible reduction of at least 10% in electricity prices thanks to the new system. An estimate, in fact, which will have to take into account the trend of the markets and the definitive rules of the provision.
How much will we really save on our bills from 2027?
According to the government’s first estimates, electricity bills could decrease by around 10% from 2027, especially for those with variable price contracts.
In practice, a family that pays 100 euros today could spend 90, saving 10 euros per bill. On an annual expense of 1,200 euros, the savings could reach around 120 euros per year.
In any case, it must be considered that the actual amount will depend on consumption, the type of contract and the definitive rules of the new decree. Those with a fixed price contract may not immediately benefit from the reduction.
Who will be entitled to the discount?
The benefit is mainly intended for families with indexed electricity supply contracts, i.e. variable price contracts, in which the cost of energy follows the trend of the wholesale market. They are contracts often linked to the PUN, the single national price, or more precisely to the reference indices of the electricity market.
Those who have a fixed price contract, on the other hand, have agreed with the supplier on an energy price valid for a pre-established period. As a result, any decrease in wholesale price will not necessarily result in an immediate reduction in your bill.
This is why the discount will not be the same for everyone. Furthermore, the cap concerns the gas used in electricity production, not directly the price of the gas we use at home.
Why doesn’t a gas cap of 60 euros mean 30% lighter bills?
The new agreement provides for the introduction, for a transitional period of one year, of a cap on the price of gas used by power plants. The hypothesized threshold is around 60 euros per megawatt hour, although in the final version it could drop to 58-59 euros. Currently, according to the values indicated in the negotiations, the market price is around 85-90 euros per megawatt hour.
The difference is significant, but it does not mean that household bills will decrease by the same percentage, since the cost of electricity represents only a portion of what we pay. The total also includes the costs for energy transport and meter management, system charges, taxes and fixed amounts provided for in the contracts.
Furthermore, the compensation mechanism will have a cost that should be borne by the beneficiary consumers through methods yet to be defined. In essence, cutting the price of gas may reduce the price of wholesale electricity, but the net benefit to households will be smaller.
What changes compared to the old Bill decree?
The Government had initially envisaged an intervention on the costs of the European ETS system, which requires interested companies to purchase quotas to offset their greenhouse gas emissions in accounting terms. A solution which, however, met with opposition from Brussels.
The political agreement announced on 16 October instead introduces a different path: only compensating for the increase in the cost of gas used to produce electricity, without covering the costs of ETS quotas. It is also an important distinction from an environmental point of view, because the ETS serves to maintain an economic incentive to reduce emissions.
The European Commission has specified that the new measure must be temporary, limit market distortions and ensure that the benefits reach end consumers. In any case, the agreement reached between Italy and the European Commission is still preliminary. The path involves the technical definition of the mechanism, the formal notification of the measures to Brussels for the verification of the rules on state aid, the adoption of the new decree and the regulatory interventions of ARERA.
The expected duration is one year and the government’s objective is to start from January 2027.
Sources: Il Sole 24 Ore / ARERA
