For astronomy enthusiasts, the last few months have been tense. In fact, one of the most anticipated astronomical events of the year is approaching: the close passage of the comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS) to Earth, scheduled for October 12, 2024. However, the path of this celestial body could be compromised. In July, an astronomer had already reported possible signs of disintegration of the comet, given its approach to the Sun. This could have deprived terrestrial observers of the view of its spectacular tail.
Fortunately, the comet managed to overcome this challenge, reassuring astronomers. However, now there is a new obstacle: the Sun. Last Monday, October 7, 2024, the Sun ejected a powerful coronal mass (CME) towards the Earth and the comet. This explosion originated from the currently very active sunspot AR3842 and has already caused significant radio blackouts on Earth.
A particularly active Sun at the peak of the solar cycle
The Sun is at the peak of its 11-year solar cycle and this leads to frequent geomagnetic storms, which produce spectacular auroras but can also cause telecommunications disruptions. As reported by NOAA, Monday’s flare launched a CME towards Earth at speeds between 250 and 3,000 km/s, speeds that would allow the CME to reach our planet in just 15 to 18 hours.
The impact of the CME could cause a G3 level geomagnetic storm, i.e. high intensity, between Wednesday and Thursday. This event could affect satellites and GPS, as well as cause fluctuations in the power grid.
While geomagnetic storms are a wonder for aurora watchers, this CME could directly impact Comet Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, potentially damaging or even tearing off its tail. Astronomers are monitoring the situation in the hope of still being able to observe the comet’s unique spectacle, even if the impact of this coronal mass makes its fate uncertain.
