The smartphone market is experiencing a historical change, which for a moment took us back in time, to 2007, when Forbes crowned Nokia as the world leader in telephony (1 billion customers worldwide, over half of the global market under its aegis) by asking a simple question: “Will anyone ever be able to catch up with the king of cell phones?”. We know how it went: smartphones engulfed the market, Nokia was unable to adapt and practically disappeared from the market.
The current context is certainly different than that of 2007, but even in this case we are talking about a change at the top of global telephonybecause for the first time since 2011, Apple is preparing to take the crown of the world’s largest phone maker from Samsung. The data speaks clearly: in 2025 the Cupertino company will reach a market share of 19.4%while the Korean giant will drop to 18.7%. The news comes from CounterpointResearchan analysis company specializing in the technology sector, which has published forecasts for the global smartphone market. The figures indicate an overall growth of 3.3% in global shipments, but Apple is driving this increase with an expected 10% year-on-year jump.
The success of the iPhone 17 series
Several factors hide behind this historic overtaking. There iPhone 17 seriesjust launched, has received an extraordinary reception in key markets. Consumers appreciate technical innovations and renewed designs, elements that are pushing sales beyond initial expectations.
“The key factor behind the improved forecast is that the replacement cycle is reaching its turning point,” explains Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research. His analysis highlights an interesting phenomenon: millions of people who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now looking to replace their devices.
The second-hand market fuels new purchases
Then there is an often underestimated element: the second-hand device market. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025, 358 million used iPhones were sold. These users, according to forecasts, represent a base of customers ready to switch to a new model in the coming years, a very precious resource for Apple, which can count on a pool of potential buyers already loyal to its ecosystem.
Counterpoint Research predicts this leadership position will be maintained until at least 2029. The combination of continuous innovation, loyal customer base and favorable replacement cycle creates the conditions for lasting supremacy.
Samsung focuses on emerging markets
For Samsung, losing first place after fourteen years of dominance certainly represents a setback. The Korean company will still record a 4.6% growth in shipments, but this increase will not be enough to maintain its lead.
Samsung’s strategy is divided into two fronts. In the emerging marketsthe focus shifts to the A series, which offers solid technical specifications at competitive prices. In the mature marketsInstead, the company focuses its efforts on premium devices to defend the shares acquired and compete with Apple’s top of the range devices.
Chinese manufacturers are looking for new spaces
The Counterpoint Research report also analyzes the position of Chinese brandswhich represent an increasingly significant portion of the global market. These manufacturers are changing their strategy: they are looking for growth in foreign markets and moving towards higher price segments, focusing on premium features that increase profitability.
Geographical diversification and scaling up the range will allow Chinese brands to increase revenues. Forecasts point to one stability in shipping rankings through 2029a sign that these companies have found a sustainable balance between volume and profit margins.
Apple’s overtaking Samsung marks a watershed moment in the smartphone industry. Fourteen years of Korean leadership leave room for a new phase dominated by the iPhone, while the global market continues to evolve between technological innovation, new commercial balances and increasingly demanding consumers. Who knows how it will end.
Source: counterpointresearch.com
