Since this morning, north-western Tuscany has been on red alert, the highest level of the civil protection scale. The code, adopted on Wednesday by the Region on the basis of the criticality notice from the Functional Centre, is valid from 10am to midnight on Thursday 12 November and concerns Lunigiana, the Reno basin and the Serchio-Garfagnana-Lima area. The risk is the hydrogeological-hydraulic one of the minor network, i.e. landslides, mud flows and flooding of secondary watercourses.
The areas in orange and yellow
Around the red area the code is orange, in force from 5pm on Wednesday and throughout today, on Versilia, the Lucca plain, the lower Serchio valley and the Bisenzio and Ombrone Pistoiese basins. The hydraulic risk on the major rivers is also orange, with Magra, Serchio, Ombrone Pistoiese and Bisenzio under surveillance until midnight. In the rest of the region, including the Archipelago, the yellow light for strong thunderstorms began at 9am.
“The entire civil protection system of Tuscany is on alert,” said President Eugenio Giani. The Lamma recommends avoiding underpasses and depressed areas, not approaching watercourses and not staying in cellars. Many municipalities in the provinces of Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Pistoia and Prato have decided to close schools.
How much rain is expected
For today the Functional Center estimates average cumulative temperatures of around 100 millimeters in Lunigiana, Garfagnana and the Reno basin, with peaks of 150-200 millimeters on the reliefs. Between 60 and 80 millimeters on average, with maximums of up to 150, are expected in Versilia, Lucchesia and the Prato-Pistoia area. Hourly intensities could reach 50-60 millimetres.
On Tuesday 10th, Lamma recalls, the first wave of rain had already caused flooding, landslides and floods in Lunigiana and Garfagnana. The consortium describes a very intense Atlantic disturbance, fueled by vapor-laden subtropical air. The 9.30 bulletin indicates an intensification from late morning, with locally strong showers and thunderstorms, and more scattered phenomena in the evening. The wind from the south is added, with gusts of 60-80 kilometers per hour on the coast and the Archipelago, while the sea will become very rough.
Atlantic Storm Charles
The one pushing the bad weather onto the Peninsula is Charles, an Atlantic storm which, according to the reconstruction by Giulio Betti, meteorologist and researcher from the Cnr-Lamma who spoke to Adnkronos, will first hit Spain and Portugal, and then move towards France. The tail will bring very heavy rains between Thursday and Friday across the entire North and the Tyrrhenian regions, from Tuscany to Calabria, with Sardinia involved and the Adriatic side and Sicily on the margins.
The areas most exposed to storms, according to Betti, are central-eastern Liguria, upper Tuscany, western Emilia and lower Friuli Venezia Giulia. The meteorologist predicts storm gusts first from the sirocco and then from the south-westerly wind, high water in Venice of up to 110 centimeters and snow only above 2,000 metres.
When it gets better
We will have to wait for a real truce. Betti speaks of instability at least until Saturday, with repercussions on the Tyrrhenian regions until Monday. In Tuscany the regional bulletin indicates scattered rains and strong south-westerly winds on the coast on Friday, clear spells in the central-north on Saturday, and again clouds and rain on the central-southern areas on Sunday. Temperatures, very high until Friday, will drop over the weekend, even if only briefly, given that between Sunday and Monday they are expected to be above average again
