Good news on the climate crisis front? Maybe so: 2024 might be remembered as the year when Global energy-related CO2 emissions have reached their peakto then start (hopefully) a long period of decline. The last one supports it DNV’s Energy Transition Outlookan independent analysis that every year photographs the state of global energy transition.
“For the first time since the industrial revolution – we read in the report – the world seems to be on the eve of a long period of decline. The emissions are intended for reduce by almost half by 2050“. But it’s not yet time to claim victory.
A historic achievement (but with reservations)
If DNV’s predictions prove correct, peak emissions would mark a historic milestone in the fight against climate change. A long-awaited trend reversal, driven mainly by the boom in solar photovoltaic and gods electric vehiclesfavored in turn by the reduction in battery costs.
“Solar photovoltaic and batteries they are driving the energy transitiongrowing even faster than we already predicted,” he comments Remi EriksenGroup President & CEO of DNV.
China leads the solar race
What is driving the growth of solar is above all the Chinawhich alone represented the 58% of global installations in 2023. The Asian giant, while remaining the main consumer of coal in the world, is investing massively in renewable energyaiming to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
The “hard-to-abate” problem
But all that glitters is not gold. In fact, DNV’s analysis highlights another side of the coin: the energy transition proceeds at different speeds in the various sectors. While electrification advances rapidly in some areas, such as i transport and the energy productionother sectors, defined as “hard-to-abate”, show greater resistance.
These are sectors such asaviationThe maritime transport and theheavy industrywhere decarbonisation is more complex and requires technologies still in development, such asgreen hydrogen and the carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The shadow of the Paris objectives
Despite the encouraging data, the world is still far from reaching the climate goals set by the Paris Agreement. According to DNV, the increase in global average temperature by the end of the century will be 2.2°C, well above the 1.5°C threshold considered “safe” by scientists.
A call to action
“It is worrying – warns Eriksen – that the estimated decline differs greatly from the reduction curve necessary to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In particular, the sectors that are difficult to electrify need a new impulse from the institutions.”
The message is clear: the peak in emissions is a positive sign, but it is not enough. We need a global, coordinated effort to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon future. Time is running out and the challenge is enormous, but the goal is still reachable.
