The ocean circulation system in the Atlantic, known as AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), plays a fundamental role in maintaining global climate balance. Functioning like a gigantic “conveyor belt”, this system transports enormous quantities of warm water towards the north and cold water towards the south.
This process helps regulate global temperatures and to distribute heat between the different regions of the planet. However, scientific predictions indicate that the AMOC could weaken more rapidly than previously thought, with devastating consequences for the global climate.
Recent studies, including research published in the journal Nature Geosciencesuggest that the AMOC might lose up to 30% of its strength already by 2040, twenty years earlier than previous estimates. The consequences would be dramatic because a rapid weakening of this system could trigger extreme climate changes.
In Europe there would be harsher winters and a slowdown of tropical monsoonswhile the southern hemisphere could experience a accelerated heating. Furthermore, the Sahel and other African regions could face severe droughts, with a decrease in rainfall of up to 30%, threatening food security.
Thwaites Glacier is already showing signs of instability
But what is most worrying is the situation Antarctica which is already facing an unprecedented climate crisis, with its melting ice at worrying rates due to global warming. One of the main fears concerns the melting of ice sheets, which contribute to sea level rise.
Antarctica is home to around 60% of the planet’s fresh water and its melting could lead to a seas rising by several meters in the centuries to comewith devastating consequences for coastal areas around the world. Furthermore, for all the considerations seen previously, the Arctic Ocean could become completely ice-free as early as 2027with Antarctica’s ice surface declining by 12% every decade.
These changes are amplified by higher temperatures and storms intensified by global warming, which accelerate ice melt both at the surface and along floating ice shelves. Particularly the glacier Thwaitesknown as the “ice of the final judgment,” is showing signs of instability.
This glacier, which acts as a “cap” for other ice masses, could break off completely, releasing enormous quantities of water into the ocean. Its merger could also trigger a domino effectaccelerating the calving of more glaciers and further raising sea levels.
Without significant interventions, Antarctica could become a major driver of warming and instability for future generations. The rate of ice melt and its impacts on sea levels are not yet fully understood, but the direction is increasingly alarming.
