The sea advances and is not an abstract forecast. For the coast of Lecce, one of the most symbolic areas of Salento, now we know exactly where and how it could infiltrate, flooding streets, houses and countryside. A new and detailed map, the first so precise for this territory, shows the vulnerable points where the Adriatic, driven by the rise of its level, risks pouring into the hinterland during the most intense storms. The researchers of the CMCC Foundation (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) made it, which published their results on the Journal of Water and Climate Change, offering a tool also for the future planning of the territory.
The dunes, fragile barriers that can betray
The study has combined digital land models with a resolution of a single meter with the projections on the raising of the sea level expected in the next 35 years. The result is a worrying but necessary photograph, which highlights how dunal systems, our most precious natural barriers, are the weak point. The front erosion is not the greatest danger, but rather the water that insinuates through the gates, passages and wounds inflicted on dunes over the years.
The researchers identified the areas most at risk in the 15 km of coast analyzed with surgical precision. The northern sectors are the most exposed: beach, Torre Chianca and a specific point of Frigole. In the beach, for example, the urban area that could end under water during extreme events is destined to double, passing from the 11 hectares of 2020 to the 20 hectares expected in 2060. The maps, which can be consulted publicly, indicate the specific roads, the former swamps and the areas where the dunes have been removed or damaged, which will work as real entrance doors for the sea.
Critical points and practical solutions
The most critical areas identified are the former lagoon of Fiumicelli in the beach, the area around the Fetida Stagno in Torre Chianca involving Piazza Paradiso, and a passage near a bathing establishment in Frigole, from which the water could exceed the Lungomare Attilio Mori. These are not unleashed future scenarios, but dynamics already triggered that the raising of the sea will only amplify.
So what to do? The study does not just launch the alarm, but provides concrete recommendations. Absolute priority is the conservation and ecological restoration of the dunes. At the same time, intensive parking in the areas close to ponds and dunes should be discouraged, since they compact the soil and make it waterproof, aggravating the floods. Regular maintenance of reclamation channels is also fundamental to improve drainage.
Continuous monitoring through instrumental networks remains essential to anticipate future flooding events -explains Gianandrea Mannarini, researcher of the CMCC and first author of the study -and, ultimately, the most effective approach is to integrate these vulnerabilities in long -term urban planning paintings.
A work that starts from the awareness and scientific knowledge of the territory.
As a researcher and citizen of Lecce I felt in a privileged position in order to help our territory face important challenges and prepare for the future – added Mannarini, underlining the importance of – directly support those who are called to plan the future of our land.
A national emergency: from Salento to Venice
The case of Lecce, however, is not isolated. The fragility of its coast is the mirror of a vulnerability that runs along the entire peninsula, as also highlighted by the interactive maps of international institutes such as Central Climate. The most exposed area of Italy is that of the Upper Adriatic: here, a lethal mix given by the particular conformation of the territory and the phenomenon of subsident (the lowering of the soil) puts at risk of permanent submerged places symbol such as Venice and the entire Delta of the Po, as well as most of the Riviera Romagnola.
But no side is safe. On the Tyrrhenian coast, the raising of the waters threatens to flood densely populated and tourist areas from Versilia to Livorno, submerging the coast of Ostia and Fiumicino and putting pearls such as Sperlonga and Gaeta at risk. Campania is also strongly interested, with critical issues ranging from the Domizio coast to the Sele plain. On the Ionian side and on the islands, the risks are equally concrete and concern the coastal areas of Calabria, Basilicata and the urbanized areas of Catania, Cagliari and Oristano.
