Global efforts to contain rising temperatures are not enough. In the current scenario, an increase of 2.9°C is expected by the end of the century and oil demand will continue to grow until 2050.
News that will hopefully stir consciences and lead to the implementation of all the necessary tools in the negotiating tables currently open in Belém, Brazil, on the occasion of COP30.
This is according to the World Energy Outlook 2025 of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which signals an imminent danger: the abundance of oil and gas and lower prices risk generating a dangerous complacency towards fossil fuels, undermining global climate objectives.
Oil and gas are in excellent health
Looking at the short-term projections outlined in all scenarios in the report, a forecast of ample global oil and gas supplies emerges. The oil market, despite geopolitical fragility, reflects this situation with stable prices. The gas market, however, is driven by a massive increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects and an increase in investment in new projects. This translates into a 50% increase in global LNG availability, concentrated mostly in the United States and, to a lesser extent, in Qatar.
But why does this happen in the era of electrification?
Because, at the same time, the global need for energy services for mobility, heating, cooling and industrial uses is growing. In particular, emerging economies – led by India, Southeast Asia and countries in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America – are increasingly shaping the dynamics of the energy market, picking up the baton of growth that had been dominated by China until 2010.
The allure of oil and gas
The World Energy Outlook 2025 sends a clear warning: do not be fascinated by oil & gas.
First of all because both supplies are subject to geopolitical risks, but also because falling back into fossil fuels is very easy: weaker energy transition policies and lower fuel prices are always around the corner.
The 2.9 °C scenario by 2100
In the Current Policy scenario, the trajectory of dependence on fossil fuels is incompatible with climate objectives. If current policies do not change dramatically, demand for oil will increase to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, while demand for natural gas will grow to 5,600 billion cubic meters.
In this scenario, OPEC+ oil production in 2050 would be 15% higher than any historical value.
Catastrophic inertia
The impact of such policies will lead to climate inertia, i.e. the persistence of the effects of greenhouse gases in the system even after emissions are reduced, with catastrophic consequences.
Global energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase and remain at around 40 gigatons per year until 2050. This path leads to an increase in global average surface temperature of around 2°C in 2050 and as much as 2.9°C by 2100.
1.5°C target exceeded in every scenario
The report is explicit: global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C under any scenario, even those that involve very rapid reductions in emissions.
News which, already in the first week of the Conference of the Parties, signals that the objective of the Paris Agreement – “limiting the increase in the average global temperature to well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, aiming for a maximum threshold of 1.5 °C” – has now been missed.
