They are the southerners over 75 who, while maintaining residence in a southern region, emigrate to the Centre-North to essentially be close to their children, who in turn had already left their hometown. They are the “grandparents with suitcase”, those who are marking the new face of a mobility that has so far been “submerged”.
That’s right: according to the new Svimez report “One country, two emigrations”, presented in collaboration with Save the Children, there is a significant flow of elderly people towards the North and essentially for two reasons: family reunification with children and grandchildren who have emigrated to the Centre-North also to support family care loads; and the growing difficulty of receiving adequate care services in the South, characterized by deficiencies in health and welfare services.
And the suitcase is packed.
According to the report, from 2002 to 2024 almost 350 thousand graduates under 35 left the South towards the Centre-North, for a deadweight loss (net of returns) of 270 thousand units. Over the period, the share of graduates among southern migrants between the ages of 25 and 34 tripled: from 20% in 2002 to around 60% in 2024.
But not just Northern Italy. Between 2002 and 2024, more than 63 thousand southern graduates under 35 left the country. Net of returns, the overall loss for the South is 45 thousand qualified young people.
Women migrate the most. From 2002 to 2024, 195 thousand women graduates emigrated from the South to the Centre-North, 42 thousand more than men. The share of skilled workers among southern migrants heading to the Centre-North has grown especially among women: from 22% in 2002 to almost 70% in 2024, against an increase from 14.6% to 50.7% among men.
Furthermore, the North is also recording growing international emigration: between 2002 and 2024, 154 thousand graduates left a region in the Centre-North. The phenomenon reached its peak in 2024: 21 thousand young graduates under 35 from central and northern Italy moved abroad, double that of 2019 (around 10 thousand). The Centre-North largely compensates for its foreign losses thanks to flows from the South: +270 thousand net positive balance towards the South between 2002 and 2024.
The hidden mobility of the elderly
“Submerged” because it is essentially an unofficial mobility: the elderly, despite living continuously in the Centre-North, retain their registered residence in the municipalities of origin in the South. Since they do not make a change of residence, these moves do not appear in traditional demographic statistics on registry cancellations.
According to SVIMEZ estimates, the unofficial movements of southerners over 75 doubled between 2002 and 2024, going from around 96 thousand to over 184 thousand people.
Why do older people move?
The reasons behind this migratory choice in old age are mainly three:
How the shift is calculated (the pharmaceutical proxy)
Since these citizens do not change residence, their stable presence elsewhere is estimated through affiliated pharmaceutical mobility. In practice, we analyze the data relating to the purchase of essential drugs and for chronic diseases (Band A) made with “Red Recipe” or electronically in regions other than that of residence. Since the over 75 population absorbs between 60% and 70% of national pharmaceutical spending, the consumption of these drugs outside the region becomes a reliable indicator of those who live permanently, even without residence, in another territory.
This phenomenon also has an economic impact: passive healthcare mobility (i.e. the cost of services provided to southern citizens by other regions) is worth a total of around 1.2 billion euros for the South, with the heaviest deficits in Calabria, Campania and Sicily.
But how can we stop this flow? The “right to remain”
The “right to remain” (right to stay) proposed by SVIMEZ consists of a package of new public policies aimed at transforming migration from the South from a “forced response” to a free individual choice.
According to the report, this proposal arises from the need to combat the flight of talent and the depletion of qualified human capital, based on three fundamental pillars:
The “right to remain” proposed by SVIMEZ aims to transform migration from the South from a forced necessity to a voluntary choice. The plan is based on three pillars:
- fight against early migration (Education): SVIMEZ proposes to encourage southern students to remain in the South to continue their studies, offering enhanced scholarships financed with European funds to prevent them from leaving the region before graduating.
- professional incentives (Work): SVIMEZ also offers tax breaks for young graduates who remain in the South, with the “Graduate Staying Premium”, which offers partial income tax relief for the first 5 years of work in regions with high emigration. These measures are integrated into Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to encourage the hiring of new graduates
- strengthening of welfare (Quality of life): to avoid depopulation, SVIMEZ proposes to improve social and health services, reduce the work penalty for mothers and strengthen childcare services, creating adequate living conditions to ensure that young people can develop professionally in the South without having to emigrate
In short, the objective would be to make the South an attractive place for young people, with professional opportunities and a quality of life that can stop emigration and encourage regional growth. A dream, practically. But in the 21st century it would also be time…
HERE you can find the complete SVIMEZ report.
