Discovered in December 2024, The Asteroid 2024 YR4 He immediately made the antennas to the astronomers go up. With a diameter of about 55 meters – as much as a 15 -storey building – it had been initially inserted among the “potentially dangerous” objects for the earth. At the time, the first estimates indicated a probability of 3.1% impact with our planet by 2032. An unusually high value, especially for a celestial body of this size. If he really crashed, he could have Radish a whole city to the ground.
The danger to the earth has fallen, but there is a possible impact with the moon
Things have changed within a few months. In February 2025, thanks to more accurate observations, the risk of collision with the earth was revised downwards: the probability has fallen to about 0.28%a decidedly less worrying level.
But while the earth breathed a sigh of relief, the attention moved to the Moonwhich could become the main target of YR4. The latest calculations speak of one not negligible possibility that the asteroid affects the lunar surface in 2032.
What would happen in that case? The impact, in itself,. But the consequences would be anything but negligible: the explosion would raise a cloud of dust and fragments of regolitethe material that covers the lunar surface. This could multiply the number of micrometorites in orbit around the earth up to a thousand timesputting at risk Satellites, probes and spatial missions with crew.
Among the most exposed are the astronauts who, in the coming years, should return to the moon with the Artemis program.
Scientists evaluate a nuclear response
In front of this scenario, scientists are looking for solutions. One of the hypotheses is deviate the asteroid from its routebut there are many unknowns here: they do not yet know each other with precision mass and composition by YR4. An incorrect maneuver could even Modify the trajectory for the worseapproaching it to the earth.
That’s why, although it is an extremely controversial proposal, it is discussing The option of a nuclear mission. The idea would be that of crushed the asteroid before it reaches the moonmaking a nuclear head explode in its vicinity.
It is not a science fiction film: the NASA has already experienced a similar intervention in 2022when Dart managed to change the orbit of Dimorphos, a small moon of an asteroid, with the Dart mission. But in that case the conditions were much more favorable. Today, with restricted times and many more technical doubtsreplicating the large -scale experiment would be much more complicated.
According to simulations, to prepare such an operation it would be necessary Start the work by 2029with a launch expected between 2029 and 2031. Considering the design and construction times of a space vehicle capable of transporting a nuclear device, It is necessary to act well in advanceeven if the probability of impact remains around 4%.
In other words: The alarm is not immediatebut ignore it could cost us dearly.
