Sip a cup of coffee in the morning for many of us is an automatic, almost obvious gesture, but changes are expected on the horizon that could upset our daily ritual and climate change – once again – they are at the center of the scene.
By 2050, in fact, global warming could radically transform the panorama of coffee, putting some more popular varieties at risk, primarily the much appreciated Arabic. According to forecasts, the ideal conditions for this plant could become increasingly difficult to find, with potential negative consequences for the global production of coffee.
Arabica and robust are the two most consumed varieties of coffee in the world. Arabica is the most valuable and represents most of the high quality coffee on the market. It grows better at high altitudes, where fresh temperatures and ideal sunlight favor the development of beans with a rich and intense flavor. Global warming is however altering these optimal conditions, forcing farmers to move to increasingly higher areas, up to the limits of the cultivable areas.
The robust, although less valuable than Arabic, is more resistant to climatic variations and diseases. It grows at low altitudes, in warmer conditions, and is less susceptible to parasites thanks to its higher content of caffeine, which acts as a natural deterrent. Despite its greater adaptability, even the robust is not immune to climate change and could face significant challenges in the future.
According to a study by the University of Florida (2024), by 2050 the global Arabica surrender could decrease up to 80%. Reason? Increased temperatures, irregular rains, parasites and diseases that thrive in a warmer climate. The consequence is clear: the coffee we know risks becoming a luxury good, with uphill prices and quality downhill.
We had already told you about a previous article by a study by the University of Florida, which had highlighted how Arabica risks decreasing by 80% by 2050, affected by global warming and increasingly adverse climatic conditions. The study suggests that farmers may have to rely on more resistant Arabica varieties or focus on robust, which requires less resources and has greater resistance to environmental diseases and stress.
Another variety that could earn ground is Liberica, known by a few (in fact it represents only 2-3% of the global market).
In any case, the main challenge that the coffee sector will have to adapt and find varieties that can continue to provide the quality and productivity required by the supply chain, even in a rapid change world.
The consequences
If the climatic conditions continue to change, the cultivable areas for Arabica and the robust could become inadequate, reducing the availability of these varieties. The consequences? Different, among these also the increase in coffee prices (which is actually already recording).
The decrease in the availability of high quality coffee could also affect consumers’ habits and push towards greater acceptance of alternative varieties or innovative production methods. Companies and manufacturers could be forced to look for a “plan B”, such as the genetic improvement of existing varieties or the exploration of new varieties of more resilient coffee.
The possible solutions
Fortunately, the research is advancing in an attempt to face these challenges. The researchers of the UQueensland NativenessFor example, they are working on solutions to improve the quality of coffee and adapt crops to new climatic conditions. Part of their work includes the experimentation of new cultivation techniques and the search for varieties of coffee that can thrive in more difficult conditions.
There is also another study, conducted by Kew Royal Botanic Gardens researchers, which highlighted that over 60% of the 124 species of wild coffee is at risk of extinction due to climate change, with serious implications for the genetic diversity necessary to create new cultivars and resistant hybrids at extreme conditions and parasites.
In addition to the cultivation techniques already mentioned, the interest in coffee “Shade-Grown” grows, cultivated underground coverage, which improves biodiversity, soil fertility and climatic resilience.
As Dr. Aaron Davis, author of the study, despite this:
There is the potential to use previously unused or underutilized wild coffee species to produce new coffee or hybrid cultivars, via selection, capable of growing in climates that Arabian and robust coffee cannot tolerate.
It must then be said that global policies to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change will be crucial to protect not only coffee, but also other essential agricultural crops. Initiatives to promote sustainability and resilient agriculture are fundamental to guarantee a future in which coffee (as well as other foods) can continue to be part of our daily life.
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