The 2026 Sanremo Festival has now started, with Carlo Conti as artistic director and host, supported by co-host Laura Pausini.
In an era in which televoting weighs decisively on the final ranking, supplemented by the votes of the opinion poll jury, the RTV press room and the radio, the question “Who will win Sanremo?” it no longer ends in live performances or critical reviews alone. The real game is also played, and increasingly, in the digital world: Instagram stories, viral reels, live comments, TikTok shares and organized fan mobilization can move tens of thousands of votes in a few hours, especially during decisive evenings.
Precisely in this context, SWJ Web Marketing, an Italian agency specialized in statistical analysis and monitoring of real audiences, active since 2008 in the web sector and in social growth since 2011, has developed an advanced predictive simulation. Through its marketing-seo.it portal, the agency cross-referenced real behavioral data from the Bigs’ social profiles with three leading artificial intelligence models: Grok, Gemini and ChatGPT.
This is not a prediction based on subjective listening to songs, but on objective and measurable metrics such as authentic engagement, audience quality, sentiment analysis on thousands of comments, follower growth in the last 60-90 days and the speed of post-performance viral propagation.
The AI verdict: Serena Brancale is the favourite
The combined result of the three artificial intelligences sees Serena Brancale with the song Here with me as the candidate with the highest probability of final victory. An almost ideal mix of perceived authenticity, deep engagement and transversal appeal plays in favor of the Apulian artist, capable of convincing both the young public and the technical juries. Immediately behind him are Tommaso Paradiso with The romantics and the couple Fedez & Marco Masini with Necessary evil.
Serena Brancale: the silent favorite who convinces AI and bookmakers
Serena Brancale is not the artist with the most followers nor does she generate clickbait headlines or daily controversy. Precisely this media “silence” makes it solid in the eyes of AI. His growth on Instagram is organic, constant and free of artifice: posts showing studio rehearsals, recording sessions, intimate moments linked to musical creation. The comments under its contents are on average longer, more detailed and positive than the Big average, a sign of a community that appreciates musical authenticity and depth. The song Here with mean emotional dedication to his deceased mother, adds a touching element that could strike both the hearts of the public and the more technical judgments. Bookmakers often confirm it in pole position, with odds ranging between 2.70 and 3.50 on platforms such as Eurobet, Sisal and Bet365.
Tommaso Paradiso: the emotional intensity of an identity community
Tommaso Paradiso, making his solo debut after his experience with Thegiornalisti, brings a young, digital and strongly identifying fanbase: he doesn’t follow for fashion, but for emotional belonging. AI detects very high peaks of interaction during moments of hype: when televoting opens, the reaction can be immediate, massive and coordinated. The odds place it firmly at around 7.00-7.50, confirming its potential as a “tipper” if the live performance is able to convince. The main limitation remains the difficulty of expanding towards a mainstream or more mature audience.
Fedez & Marco Masini: enormous reach, but held back by polarization
The couple is unbeatable for pure visibility: Fedez exceeds 13-14 million followers, Masini adds a historic, mature and loyal audience. Each piece of content generates thousands of immediate interactions and enormous reach. However, AI introduces the crucial variable: polarization. Fedez divides deeply, producing a very high volume of conversation but also a significant share of negative sentiment. In terms of net conversion into actual votes, the enormous theoretical potential risks being reduced if the rifts between fans and detractors become more accentuated during the Sanremo week. The odds see them between 6.00 and 7.00, in the leading trio together with Paradiso.
Quantity or quality? Comparison with DeRev analysis
A different picture emerges from the analysis of DeRev, a company specializing in digital monitoring, which published the “Sanremo Social 2026” ranking based on total followers, engagement and growth in the period November 2025-February 2026. With the “DeRev Score”, which measures the strength of potential mobilization without however evaluating the relational depth or quality of the audience, Fedez & Masini dominate, followed by Elettra Lamborghini, Arisa, Sayf and Luchè.
The difference between the two approaches is substantial: counting followers is not the same as measuring how many of them will actually vote. And it is precisely on this point that SWJ Web Marketing’s AI analysis points the finger, betting on Serena Brancale as the candidate who best knows how to transform her community into concrete votes.
