The environmental impact of aviation has always been a central theme in the ecological debate. But in 2023 a new element was added: The war in Ukraine has changed global air trafficforcing many western companies to avoid Russian aerial space. The result? Longer routes and an increase of 1% of carbon dioxide emissions.
According to a study published on Communications Earth & Environmentthe new deviations have led to a average increase of 13% in fuel consumption on the routes concerned. The flights between Europe and Asia have recorded a 14.8% increase in consumptionwhile those between North America and Asia have seen one growth of 9.8%.
Longer routes, more co₂: the numbers of change
From the data it emerges that about 1,800 flights a day had to change their path. The most affected routes are those that traditionally crossed the Russian aerial space to connect Europe and Asia. With the new routes, often through the Middle East or the Arctic, the flight time has increased and with it the fuel consumption.
Overall, the increase in global emissions in the sector has been quantified in 8.2 million tons of CO₂ only in 2023. This increase is comparable to a quarter of the efficiency improvements expected by the optimized management of air traffic, a significant step back in the fight against climate change.
Not only Russia: other areas of conflict and environmental impacts
The study also analyzed the effects of air restrictions in other conflict areas such as Libya, Syria and Yemen. Although the impact is lower than that of the Russian ban, Every day between 60 and 100 flights are forced to deviations that increase fuel consumption between 2.7% and 4.3%.
Another factor not to be underestimated is the increase in atmospheric turbulence, which according to experts will become more frequent due to climate change. These conditions make flights less efficient, with a further impact on emissions.
But how do these differences are explained?
The researchers used a trajectories optimization algorithmwhich takes into account several factors like winds and aerial currents. It emerged that the flights between Europe and Asia are those who have undergone the greatest deviations, often having to fly against strong contrary winds. In addition, airlines, although trying to optimize routes, have to deal with other operational constraints, such as weather conditions and safety standards, which can affect fuel consumption.
Towards a more sustainable aviation?
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the fragility of efforts to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. While airlines invest in technologies such as biofuels and electric planes, the increase in emissions caused by the deviations risks frustrating this commitment.
According to theInternational civil aviation organization (ICAO), improve air traffic management could reduce the CO2 emissions in the sector from 3 to 5%. In addition, the adoption of fuels such as biofuels could contribute to further reducing the environmental impact of flights.
However, without a concrete commitment by governments and airlines, these objectives are at risk of remaining unattainable.
