The rains are increasing, not the cold. It is the summary of the monthly forecasts of the Air Force, the meteorological service of the Ministry of Defense. The bulletin was issued on Friday 25 September and covers the period up to 25 October.
Until October 4th, anticyclone and first instability
The week opens under a robust blocking anticyclone over the central-western Mediterranean, with stable weather over much of the country. In the second half something changes. A minimum in the Balkans will make the South, in particular Sicily, more unstable, while an Atlantic trough will bring instability to the North-West and Sardinia. Rainfall will be average in the North, in Sicily and across much of Sardinia. Instead, they will be below average in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, the middle Adriatic and the rest of the South. Temperatures will remain above average everywhere, with the widest difference in the Alps, the Po Valley and the Ligurian East. Central-eastern Sicily is an exception, in line with the period.
From 5 to 11 October
In the second week the anticyclone should move towards eastern Europe and give way to humid and unstable western currents. Rainfall will generally be above average, especially in the North and on the middle Tyrrhenian side. However, temperatures will remain everywhere above the typical values of the period.
Until October 25th
Temperatures will remain above average throughout Italy until the end of the period. Between 12 and 18 October the rains should be normal in the Centre-North and more abundant in the South and on the major islands. In the last week, the most uncertain due to the temporal distance, slightly above average rainfall is expected in the North, South and on the central coasts. The bulletin reminds us that these are probabilistic trends, not forecasts for individual locations. The next update is expected on Friday 2 October. Until then, the seasonal change in the closet can wait.
