The bad weather gives no respite to the Centre-South: on Saturday 10 October orange alert in Sicily and in some areas of Calabria, Campania and Puglia. Intense thunderstorms, gusts of wind and possible hailstorms are expected. First signs of improvement on Sunday, but from Monday 12 October a new disturbance could cross Italy.
Autumn shows its most turbulent face and for millions of Italians the second weekend of October will still be full of rain. After the violent storms of the last few days, bad weather continues to hit the southern regions in particular, where attention remains high due to the risk of flooding, landslides and floods.
The most delicate day is Saturday 10 October, with the Civil Protection issuing an orange alert for Sicily and sectors of Calabria, Campania and Puglia. Yellow alert also in Abruzzo, Molise, Basilicata and in some areas of Umbria, Lazio and the southern regions themselves.
What is worrying is not only the amount of rain expected, but also the intensity of the phenomena: storms could be accompanied by strong gusts of wind, hailstorms and frequent electrical activity.
And for those who were hoping for a definitive break, the forecasts are not particularly encouraging. On Sunday 11 October the weather should improve in several areas, especially in the North, but as early as Monday 12 a new disturbance could reach the Peninsula.
Orange weather alert Saturday 10 October: the regions affected
The Civil Protection bulletin of 9 October reports particularly critical conditions in four regions of the South. In Sicily the orange warning for thunderstorms affects the entire regional territory, including the smaller islands. In Calabria it concerns various Tyrrhenian and Ionian sectors, while in Puglia some areas of Salento and the Lato and Lenne basins are involved.
A delicate situation also in Campania, where the orange alert for hydrogeological risk concerns the Campania plain, Naples, the islands, the Vesuvian area, the Sorrento and Amalfi peninsula, the Sarno Mountains and the Picentini Mountains. A yellow alert is also scheduled for Saturday in eight regions, with critical issues related to thunderstorms, hydraulic risk and hydrogeological instability.
The orange level indicates moderate criticality, with the possibility of even significant phenomena and dangerous situations for the population. It does not mean that every location will be affected with the same intensity, but it requires particular attention, especially in areas already affected by the rainfall of the previous days.
Risk of landslides, flooding and flooding
It’s not just storms that cause concern. When it rains heavily on areas already wet from previous rainfall, the soil may have a reduced capacity to absorb more water.
This increases the risk of flash flooding, landslides and landslides, especially in hilly and mountainous areas and in territories crossed by watercourses.
Particular attention should be paid to underpasses, roads near streams and rivers and areas subject to flooding.
The Civil Protection has warned that the phenomena could generate hydraulic and hydrogeological criticalities, inviting us to follow the updates released by the local authorities.
Saturday 10 October: heavy rain in the South, more stable weather in the North
The meteorological picture will remain quite different between the various areas of the Peninsula. In the North, generally more stable conditions will prevail, with irregular cloud cover and some isolated precipitation, especially in the Ligurian East, in Lombardy and in part of the North-East. There will be no shortage of sunny spells.
In the Center the situation will be more variable. Tuscany and Umbria will benefit from greater dry intervals, while the Adriatic side, in particular Abruzzo and Molise, will remain exposed to showers and thunderstorms. Possible precipitation also in Lazio.
The South will instead be the area most affected by the disturbance. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms may involve Campania, Basilicata, Puglia, Calabria and Sicily, with locally intense phenomena and a gradual drop in temperatures. More variable conditions in Sardinia, where the Mistral wind will tend to weaken over the course of the day.
Sunday 11 October: first improvements, but the Centre-South remains unstable
Sunday should bring some signs of improvement, although not everywhere. In the North, mainly stable conditions are expected, with wider clearings and only some cloud accumulations over eastern Liguria, Lombardy and Triveneto.
The picture is more uncertain in the Centre-South, where rainfall may still occur, especially along the Adriatic side and in the southern regions. However, the forecasts are not entirely in agreement on the intensity and duration of the phenomena: some models indicate a more decisive improvement as early as Sunday, while others maintain unstable conditions in part of the South.
Another disturbance arrives on Monday 12 October: the areas at risk of rain
The respite may be short. According to the latest trends reported by TempoItalia, a new disturbance could reach the North-West on Monday 12 October, bringing precipitation extending towards the central Tyrrhenian regions.
During the afternoon, the instability could move towards Marche, Abruzzo, Molise, Campania, Basilicata and Calabria, with a possible marginal involvement of Sicily.
However, this is a trend yet to be confirmed. Other meteorological centers, including iLMeteo, predict a progressive strengthening of high pressure, with generally more stable conditions in much of the country.
The forecast until Wednesday 14 October
Between Tuesday 13th and Wednesday 14th October, the most likely scenario is that of a progressive improvement, although some areas of the South may continue to record residual rainfall.
On Tuesday, the instability could still affect the central-southern Adriatic regions, Calabria and part of Sicily, while the north, the Tyrrhenian side and Sardinia should benefit from drier conditions.
On Wednesday, any residual phenomena could concentrate mainly between Puglia, Basilicata and northern Sicily.
The Air Force trends for the week from 12 October also indicate relatively more stable conditions over Northern Italy and the central Tyrrhenian sectors, with greater variability in the South. Forecasts several days later, however, remain subject to updates.
What to do in case of an orange alert
With intense storms and high hydrogeological risk, prudence becomes essential. The Civil Protection recommends following communications from local authorities, limiting unnecessary movements in the most exposed areas and avoiding underpasses, embankments and areas close to watercourses during the heaviest rainfall.
Particular attention should also be paid to roads subject to flooding and unstable slopes, where heavy rains can trigger landslides and mudslides.
To check the alerts actually in force in your Municipality you can consult the national Civil Protection alert system and the official channels of your Region.
The message for this weekend is therefore clear: the bad weather is not over yet, especially in the South. And even if an improvement can be glimpsed in the next few days, it will be important to follow the evolution of the disturbances without lowering our guard.
