Amazon, deforestation falls by 42%: never so low since 1988, but the future of the forest will be decided at the polls

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by 41.8% in just one year, reaching the lowest level ever recorded since systematic monitoring began in 1988.

This is what emerges from data released by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), according to which between August 2025 and July 2026, 3,335 square kilometers of forest were destroyed, compared to 5,731 square kilometers in the previous period. This is a reduction of almost 2,400 square kilometers in twelve months.

The new figure is also 1,236 square kilometers lower than the previous historical minimum, recorded in 2012. A significant result for one of the most important ecosystems on the planet, fundamental for the conservation of biodiversity, the regulation of the water cycle and global climate balances.

But the data arrives at a particularly delicate political moment: on October 25th Brazil will return to the polls to choose the president, in a run-off that sees opposing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva And Flavio Bolsonaroson of former president Jair. Two candidates with profoundly different orientations on how to manage natural resources and the future of the largest tropical forest in the world.

Reduced deforestation

The 2026 result does not represent an isolated improvement. Compared to 2022, the last year before Lula’s return to the presidency, the annual pace of Amazon deforestation has reduced by 71.2%.

The decrease coincides with the strengthening of territorial control policies, the recovery of resources destined for environmental protection bodies and greater attention to the fight against illegal activities, such as unauthorized deforestation, clandestine mining and the abusive occupation of public lands.

The data comes from the PRODES satellite system, managed by INPE, which annually monitors the loss of forest cover through satellite images and constitutes the main official reference for measuring deforestation in Brazil.

The improvement does not mean, however, that the destruction has ended. Even in the best year of the historical series, the Brazilian Amazon lost over 3,300 square kilometers of forest: an extension greater than that of the Aosta Valley.

Where more forest continues to be destroyed

The reduction in deforestation also affects some of the Brazilian regions historically most affected by the conversion of forests into pastures, agricultural land and extractive areas.

The State of Pará remains the one with the largest deforested area: 1,130 square kilometers in the last year, equal to 33.9% of the Amazon total. However, the decrease compared to the previous period is 45.3%.

Mato Grosso follows, with 849 square kilometers and a contraction of 46.7%, while in the state of Amazonas the deforested area has fallen to 525 square kilometers, 46.4% less. A total of around 75% of the deforestation recorded in the Brazilian Amazon is concentrated in these three regions.

@INPE

The only exception to the general trend is represented by Roraima, where the deforested area increased by 0.4%, going from 285 to 286 square kilometers.

The picture therefore shows widespread progress, but also the persistence of strong environmental pressures in territories where the expansion of economic activities continues to conflict with the conservation of ecosystems.

But the good news isn’t just about the Amazon. The Cerrado, the immense region of tropical savannah that occupies much of central Brazil, also recorded the lowest level of deforestation since its historical series began in 2001.

Between August 2025 and July 2026, 5,516.69 square kilometers of native vegetation were eliminated, a decrease of 23.8% compared to the previous year. Considering the last four years, the reduction reaches 48.4%.

The Cerrado is one of the richest ecosystems in biodiversity in South America, but also one of the most threatened by agricultural and livestock expansion. For years it has been subjected to strong pressure linked above all to soy production and cattle breeding. Brazilian regulations also allow, in certain areas of the Cerrado, conversion rates of native vegetation higher than those expected for rural properties in Amazonian forest areas.

From the Bolsonaro government to Lula

The results published by INPE mark a clear discontinuity compared to the years of the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, in power from 2019 to 2022. During his administration, Amazon deforestation increased significantly, while environmental policies were criticized for the weakening of control bodies, the reduction in the application of sanctions and the attitude favorable to the expansion of extractive and agricultural activities.

We talked about it here: The deforestation of the Amazon has reached an all-time record, in general silence

According to data reported by the Guardian, during that political phase forest destruction increased by 59.5%.

With Lula’s return to the presidency in January 2023, the Brazilian government relaunched the objective of eliminating deforestation by 2030, strengthening surveillance activities and public environmental protection tools.

A central role was also played by the policies promoted by Marina Silva, a historical figure of Brazilian environmentalism and former Minister of the Environment.

The ballot and the future of the Amazon

The publication of the new data comes a few days before a decisive electoral appointment. In fact, on October 25th, Lula will face the second round of the presidential elections Flavio Bolsonarowho in the first round obtained 47.03% of valid votes against 45.16% for the outgoing president.

If on the one hand Lula claims the results achieved in containing deforestation and considers the protection of the Amazon a national priority (linked both to the defense of the territories of indigenous populations and to international commitments on the climate), on the other Flávio Bolsonaro presents himself as a worthy political heir of his father and supports an approach that is clearly more favorable to the economic exploitation of natural resources (and his closeness to the interests of the agro-industry and extractive sectors fuels the concerns of environmentalist organisations).

The divergence also concerns international relations. While Lula defends Brazil’s autonomy in the management of its resources and maintains economic relations with various global partners, the Bolsonaro family has consolidated political proximity with Donald Trump’s United States over the years.

Meanwhile, the Amazon continues to suffer the consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation, fires, illegal activities and pressures related to climate change. Its protection requires continuity in public policies, investments in surveillance and effective involvement of indigenous and local communities.

Sources: INPE / The Guardian