A new celestial body, theAsteroid 2024 YR4attracted the attention of scientists after its discovery in December 2024. Initially considered a potential danger to the earth, the latest astronomical analyzes almost completely exclude this possibility. However, the celestial body could instead Gold in collision with the moon During 2032. Although it is a still very low probability, the hypothesis is not entirely discarded.
The risk of impact with the earth fell from 3.1% to 0.001% in a few months
A few months after the discovery, the first calculations made in February 2025 had estimated one probability of collision with the land equal to 3.1%a sufficient percentage to trigger the alarm between experts. However, a new series of observations conducted on March 26 with the James Webb spatial telescope He completely reviewed the scenario.
The new data have made it possible to recalculate the trajectory of the asteroid, drastically reducing the probability of impact with our planet at 0.001%. In other words, The earth is practically out of danger. The asteroid, which has an estimated diameter around 60 metershowever, it will pass near our planet in December 2032but without representing a concrete risk.
While the threat to the earth has been denied, the attention is now shifting to the Moonwhich could be on the 2024 YR4 trajectory. Second Andrew Rightastronomer of the Johns Hopkins University, the probability of impact with our natural satellite is estimated at around 2%. A low percentage, but not negligible.
Also Julia de Léonastrophysics and researcher, underlined that the current forecasts are still preliminaries and require further analyzes. The observations provided for the month of May 2025 They will be essential to refine knowledge on the composition of the asteroid and update impact estimates with greater precision.
An impact on the moon could create a 100 km crater
In case of impact, the 2024 YR4 asteroid could generate a crater with a diameter between 80 and 100 kilometersaccording to calculations based on the data collected by James Webb. Despite the power of the event, no significant damage is expected to be for the moon or for the earth.
Julia de Léon He stressed that, despite being relatively small, an object of 60 meters can cause a strong explosion of impact, but on a body like the moon, without atmosphere and already marked by thousands of craters, does not represent a structural danger. Also Alan Fitzsimmonsphysicist of the Queen’s University of Belfast, said that such an event would offer a unique scientific opportunity to observe The consequences of a space collision live live.
A study byUniversity of Arizonareported by Planétoscope, highlighted how the surface of the moon comes Completely remodeled every 81,000 years Due to the continuous impacts of small space objects. In most cases, these are meteorites they create craters of about 10 meters in diameter in less than a decade.
However, the Asteroid 2024 YR4, with its 60 meterswould fall into a category of much rarer events. If the impact occurs, Scientists would be ready to study the phenomenon To understand its dynamics and the immediate effect on the lunar soil.
