The 2024 YR4 asteroid could affect the earth and the probability of impact has climbed over 3%. NASA’s latest update raised the estimate to 3.1%a value that exceeds any previous forecast. Until today, the record belonged to the asteroid 99942 Apophiswhich in 2004 had reached a maximum probability of the 2.7%. Now the risk is even more concrete: there is 1 possibility out of 31 that this celestial object affects our planet.
The discovery of the 2024 YR4 asteroid and the increase in impact risk
The asteroid 2024 YR4 the December 27, 2024 And since then the astronomers have been monitoring the trajectory carefully. It is a celestial body with a diameter between 40 and 90 metersa sufficient dimension to cause significant damage in case of impact.
The situation has become more worrying with The latest updates of NASAwho have revised up the probability of collision. Scientists continue to collect new dataand every new observation could change the risk. For the moment, however, the probability of 3.1% It represents the highest value ever recorded for a potentially dangerous asteroid.
What would happen in case of impact with the earth?
If 2024 YR4 should hit our planet, the consequences would depend from the point of impact and from the composition of the asteroid. A body of this dimensions could generate an explosion equal to dozens of megatonssimilar to the event of Tunguska from 1908who knocked millions of trees in Siberia.
However, experts invite to calm: probability remains lowand with new observations the risk could be reduced further. In the past, many asteroids deemed dangerous have subsequently been excluded from the list of real threats. For this, space agencies will continue to monitor constantly 2024 YR4 to update forecasts.
