In 2047, something will happen in Italy that until a few decades ago would have seemed rather unlikely: couples without children will become more numerous than those with children. In the North the overtaking will come even earlier, in 2038; in the Center in 2044. In the South, however, couples with children would retain the lead until at least 2050. These are the new demographic forecasts from Istat, based on the population as of 1 January 2025.
The temptation to read the data as a photograph of an Italy suddenly childfree it’s strong. It would also be wrong. Within those millions of “couples without children” there are people who have not had any, others who postpone the birth of children and many parents who certainly have children: they have simply grown up and left home. Istat calls it an “empty nest”. And in a country that is aging rapidly, there will be many nests like this.
From 7.5 to 5.8 million couples with children
Today couples with children are around 7.5 million and represent 28.1% of Italian families. In Istat’s median scenario, in 2050 they would fall to 5.8 million: 1.7 million less, a contraction of 22.3%. At that point they would be just 21.1% of families, just over one in five.
The decline concerns both couples with at least one child under twenty, who would lose over a million units, and those with adult children. And here the birth rate begins to show one of its less immediate effects. After decades of few births, the generations that now enter the age at which a family normally forms have also become smaller. Fewer potential parents means fewer new families with children, even if fertility stopped declining. Added to this are the later formation of couples and the postponement of the birth of children.
Couples without children would instead take the opposite path: from 5.4 million in 2025 to 5.9 million in 2050, 8.8% more. And it is enough to cross the curve of those with children.
The overtaking, however, will be rather narrow: in 2050 the former would represent 21.4% of all families, the latter 21.1%. Three tenths of a point. More than the irruption of a new family model, it seems like a photograph of two transformations meeting: fewer children on one side, more elderly people on the other.
The “empty nest” has gray hair
That almost cute term, “empty nest”, hides a very concrete transformation. More and more elderly couples will remain alone after their children leave their family of origin. And many people, after the death of their partner or the end of a relationship, will be left alone.
In 2025, around 10 million people live alone in Italy. In 2050, according to projections, there will be 11.6 million: 42% of all Italian families will be made up of a single person. Above all, their age will change. Today there are 4.6 million people over 65 who live alone; in twenty-five years they could become 6.6 million, 57% of the total.
Among those over seventy-five the figure is even more significant: in 2050 those who will live alone could be 4.7 million, 3.4 million of whom are women. There are 1.7 million more than in 2025. Istat underlines that after the age of 75, living alone can have a greater impact on the quality of life, because fragility and care needs increase.
Here the demographics leave the graphs and begin to knock on the door. A country with millions of lonely elderly people must organize assistance and healthcare, of course, but it must also decide which homes to build, where to keep services, how to operate transport and how to plan energy consumption and infrastructure. It is not our extension of the problem: Istat explicitly indicates urban planning needs, energy-environmental planning, school facilities and the transport network among the uses of these forecasts.
Families increase, the people inside decrease
There is a little paradox in the numbers. The Italian population is expected to decline, from 58.9 million in 2025 to around 55 million in 2050, yet for much of the period the number of families will increase. From 26.7 million it would rise to 27.9 million in 2043, and then decrease to 27.6 million in 2050.
It happens because those families will always be smaller. The average size will go from 2.20 to 1.98 components. Below the two people. Two decimals may seem like a matter for statisticians; multiplied by almost 28 million households, it means millions of houses inhabited by one or two people, while larger families lose weight.
The differences between North and South are also narrowing. In 2050 the South would retain the highest share of couples with children, 22.4%, but it would start from 31.2% in 2025. In the North it would go from 26.8 to 21%, in the Center from 26.2 to 19.4%. Even the average Southern family size would drop to exactly two people. The old cliché of the crowded Southern family is starting to have some problems with Excel.
There will also be more single parents
Who is left with the children when a couple breaks up will also change. If the instability of unions continues to grow in the coming years, single-parent households would rise from 2.8 to 3.3 million, rising from 10.6 to 12% of all families.
Mothers would continue to represent the majority, but the share of single fathers could grow from 19.3 to 24.1%: almost one in four. Istat also links this possible evolution to a greater participation of fathers in the care of children after the end of the union. It is a prediction, therefore it depends on the actual evolution of family behavior in the coming decades.
And it is a caution that applies to the entire relationship. 2047 is not a date written on the calendar: the household forecasts use the median scenario and are type exercises. what-ifbuilt on hypotheses regarding fertility, survival, migration and family behavior. The further we get from 2025, Istat reminds us, the more uncertainty grows.
In 2050, therefore, many of the couples classified as “childless” will certainly have children. Except they will have left home years ago. The problem will be to understand how homes, cities and services will have to change for those who remain inside.
