A month. It is the margin of safety that separates many airlines from operational collapse. Be careful, this is not a catastrophist projection, because it is precisely the leaders of the sector who have been saying this openly for days now, with an unusual frankness for an industry accustomed to minimizing inconveniences.
The structural cause is the closure of shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of all oil and gas sold to the world transits. When that hub fails, supplies of aviation fuel — the kerosene on which planes fly — begin to dwindle, first at Asian airports, then potentially everywhere.
Airlines are taking action
The Financial Times has collected and lined up the statements of managers and executives in the sector who are preparing for the prospect of having less and less fuel available. They all indicate a maximum margin of one month of regular traffic, after which the risk is having to significantly reduce flights.
Hari Marar, managing director of Bangalore International Airport, said the airport has supplies for about 25 days. Vietnam has already warned of the possibility of limiting flights. Willie Walsh, former CEO of British Airways and now head of IATA, spoke of a supply problem more serious than any previous situation. Kenton Jarvis, EasyJet’s number one, admitted that the company’s suppliers cannot guarantee availability of kerosene in three weeks’ time. Ben Smith, chief executive of Air France-KLM, said the company was developing plans to manage the shortage. The critical issue is that a plane arriving in Asia may not be able to refuel for the return journey, remaining blocked with cascading effects on all traffic. The idea is to reduce flights on those routes in the next few weeks. Ryanair, which operates only European flights, says it does not foresee any problems, with the biggest concerns being those serving long-haul routes to Asia and the Gulf countries.
What risks those who have a flight booked
If cancellations became systematic, millions of passengers would find themselves dealing with refunds, alternative routes and legal protections. The regulatory framework exists and is precise, but it contains an exception that airlines often use as a shield.
According to what is established on the ENAC page dedicated to cancellations, financial compensation is not due when the company proves that the cancellation derives from exceptional circumstances that could not have been avoided even by adopting all necessary measures – for example adverse weather conditions, strikes, or sudden deficiencies from a safety point of view. A regional-scale war with effects on the entire energy supply chain almost certainly falls into this category. Which does not mean that passengers remain without protection: it just means that the issue shifts from financial compensation to assistance.
The rights in force: EC Regulation 261/2004
Except in cases of force majeure, passengers departing from European airports are protected by Regulation (EC) no. 261/2004, which guarantees compensation of up to 600 euros in the event of denied boarding, cancellations or significant delays. The amounts vary based on the distance: 250 euros for routes up to 1,500 km, 400 euros for those between 1,500 and 3,500 km, 600 euros for longer routes.
For cancellations, the right to compensation is triggered if the company has informed the passenger less than 14 days before the flight. In any case, the passenger has the right to choose between rebooking on the first available flight and a full refund of the ticket. In the event of a delay of more than two hours, the company is obliged to provide meals, drinks and access to communications; if the departure is postponed to the following day, also the hotel accommodation and the transfer to and from the airport.
What to do if your flight is cancelled
The first step is not to accept travel vouchers as the only solution. According to the aforementioned EU Regulation 261, vouchers can be offered but only as an optional option: the passenger must always be informed of the right to receive a cash refund. Accepting a voucher means tying yourself to the same company, often within tight deadlines, and risking losing everything in the event of difficulties with the carrier.
It is useful to keep all the documentation, therefore boarding pass, booking confirmation, receipts for expenses incurred due to the disruption. The complaint must be submitted to the airline first. If no satisfactory response is received within six weeks, you can contact ENAC which has jurisdiction over the protection of passengers and can initiate sanctioning proceedings against non-compliant companies. Complaining to ENAC is free and does not require intermediaries.
In the meantime, those who have flights booked to Asia or the Gulf countries in the next thirty days would do well to keep updated.
