Imagine an ice-free Arctica cobalt blue ocean instead of the white expanse that has always characterized the North Pole. An image that could become reality much sooner than previously thought, even within the next three years. This is the hypothesis put forward by a new study, published on December 3 in Nature Communications, which analyzed daily data from advanced climate models, bringing forward the forecast for the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean to 2027.
The analysis, conducted by researchers from the University of Gothenburg and the University of Colorado Boulder Céline Heuzé and Alexandra Jahn, examined the possible evolutions of sea ice starting from conditions similar to those recorded in 2023. The results show that the first day without ice could occur within 3-6 yearsan incredibly short period of time.
There are two main factors that contribute to this acceleration: the global warmingwhich is causing increasingly rapid melting of sea ice, and the internal climate variabilityor natural fluctuations in the climate system that can amplify the effects of global warming.
The study also highlighted how all simulations with rapid ice decline present so-called “Rapid Ice Loss Event” (RILE), periods of at least 4 years in which sea ice loss spikes. These events, so far only theoretical, they could be the prelude to an ice-free Arctic.
By analyzing the simulations, scientists identified some key factors contributing to this accelerated loss. These include warmer winters, which prevent new ice from forming, intrusions of warm air from lower latitudes, and summer storms, which fragment sea ice and accelerate its melting.
Despite the alarming predictions, the study also offers a glimmer of hope. In fact, in all simulations, the first day without ice occurs in conjunction with an increase in global temperature of at least 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This means that, keeping global warming below this thresholdas established by the Paris Agreement, we could still avoid the worst.
The Arctic is a unique and precious ecosystem, habitat for numerous animal and plant species. The loss of sea ice threatens the survival of this ecosystem, putting the biodiversity and natural balance of the region at risk.
Furthermore, melting Arctic ice contributes to sea level risewith potentially disastrous consequences for coastal communities around the world.
