Italian smokers must prepare to reach into their wallets. The 2026 Budget Law provides for progressive increases in the price of cigarettes that will be distributed over the next three years. We start with an average price increase of around 15 cents per pack from 2026, then add another 10-12 cents the following year and close with a further increase of 14-15 cents in 2028. At the end of the journey, in three years, smokers will find themselves paying around 40 cents more than today.
How raises work
The mechanism chosen by the government operates on two levers. On the one hand, excise duties are growing, i.e. the fixed taxes applied to the weight of the product: it goes from 32 euros per kilo in 2026 to 35.50 euros per kilo in 2027, up to 38.50 euros per kilo from 2028 onwards. On the other hand, the percentage applied to the final sales price drops slightly: from 49.23% in 2026 it drops to 48.50% in 2027 and to 48% in 2028.
The most popular packages on the Italian market, those which represent around two thirds of total sales, currently cost between 5.30 and 5.50 euros. Well, in three years these same products will reach a price range between 5.70 and 5.90 euros.
A 1.46 billion operation
The measure has a declared objective: to raise cash. The government expects to collect around 1.46 billion euros in three years thanks to increases on cigarettes, cut tobacco, liquid inhalation products and smokeless inhalation tobacco. The latter category will even see a slight decrease in excise taxes in 2026 and 2027, but the other products will more than make up for this reduction.
The strategy aims to distribute the increase gradually, to avoid sudden shocks to the market. The first step will be the most perceptible, with those 15 cents on average that will change purchasing habits. The second year will bring a smaller increase, while the third will resume a similar pace to the first.
Shredded tobacco, even heavier price increases
Those who use cut tobacco for handmade cigarettes will face even more substantial increases in proportion, given that the excise duties on this product will rise from the current 148.5 euros per kilo up to 169.5 euros per kilo from 2028, with intermediate stages at 161.5 euros in 2026 and 165.5 euros in 2027. Here too, as for packaged cigarettes, the rate on the selling price it will go down slightly.
The most common packs of shredded tobacco contain 30 grams. For these, the average price increase will be around 50 cents as early as next year, to which another 10-15 cents will be added in 2027 and a similar figure in 2028. Overall, those who purchase chopped tobacco will pay around 80 cents more in three years compared to today.
The most common price range today is 7.70 euros for a 30 gram pack. From 2026 these packs will cost 8.16 euros, before rising to 8.31 euros in 2027 and reaching 8.46 euros from 2028. The packs that currently cost 7.40 euros will reach 8.25 euros, while those costing 7.20 euros will rise to 8.07 euros, with an overall increase of almost 90 cents.
Public health and budget
Cigarette increases are traditionally a health policy measure, as higher prices should discourage tobacco consumption. The government also plans to collect 196 million euros in three years from shredded tobacco alone, despite the number of consumers being significantly lower than that of packaged cigarettes. The gap between the increases applied to the two product categories reflects precisely this difference: higher increases on shredded produce compensate for the smaller user base.
It remains to be seen whether the strategy will have concrete effects on the behavior of smokers, who, for now, can prepare for a period of gradual but constant increases in prices, which will accompany them over the next three years.
