Global movements of people, trade and climate change are now putting half the world’s population at risk of contracting it dengue fevera disease that can cause severe muscle and joint pain and, in some cases, can cause internal bleeding and death.
The spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) has caused local dengue epidemics in France, including Paris, as well as in Italy and Spain.
Scientists expect this sort of invasive mosquito will eventually catch on in the UK.
The study
Previous disease risk predictions indicated that large regions, such as the whole of southern Europe, had a similar risk of local dengue cases over long periods of time.
But advanced high-resolution modeling conduct from UKCEH divides Europe, East Asia and North America into 10km squares, providing daily risk assessments for each area.
The new research involves a more detailed study of a mosquito’s entire life cycle, examining the impact of local climate and competition for food on species traits, such as lifespan and number of eggs who lays down. This provides more accurate assessments of where, when and for how long dengue cases are likely to occur locally.
The new model has already correctly predicted the locations of several cities that have had i first outbreaks of dengueincluding La Colle-sur-Loup, Baho and Montpellier-Pérols in southern France and Vila-seca in northeast Spain.
We expect that the parts of Europe most affected by dengue fever will continue to be southern France and northern Italy, due to a favorable climate, a stable mosquito population and the high number of travelers returning from tropical countries where the disease is prevalent. However, risk areas are expanding northward. Our ongoing research is modeling the likely scale of future epidemics in Europe due to future climate change.
So far, the French capital is the northernmost place in Europe where there has been a local outbreak of dengue fever and there has also been a local case of the disease chikungunya acquired in July, after someone was bitten by an infected Asian tiger mosquito. .
UKCEH researchers say the modeling principles used in the dengue fever study can also be applied to other tiger mosquito-borne diseases, such as chikungunya or Zika. Scientists are currently developing risk maps for these diseases.
Eggs of Asian tiger mosquito have been found in south-east England, but the species has not yet become established in the UK. However, the research team warns that this is likely to change in the future as the UK feels the effects of climate change.
Source: Nature Communications
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