El Niño, a climate phenomenon that manifests itself with an anomalous warming of the Pacific Ocean, is about to return. And this time it could be even more intense than that of 2023-2024, one of the five strongest ever recorded in history. The countdown has officially begun.
According to the new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026. And the risk that the phenomenon will persist until at least November rises to 90%.
@WMO
But what exactly is El Niño and why is it called that?
El Niño is a periodic climatic phenomenon (every 3-7 years) characterized by a strong warming of the surface waters of the central-eastern Pacific, following the weakening of the trade winds. All this alters the global climate, triggering a series of alterations in atmospheric pressure and precipitation.
An El Niño is emerging. What do you know about it?
El Niño is a powerful natural climate pattern that warms ocean waters in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every 2-7 years, but no two El Niños are exactly alike.
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https://t.co/htyps0XfsE pic.twitter.com/D9IOFhijfJ
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 3, 2026
The ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle is divided into two phases: the warm phase, El Niño, and a colder phase called La Niña, which is characterized by colder than usual sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The Spanish term means “the child” and refers to Baby Jesus, given that this phenomenon usually begins to appear off the coast of Peru during the Christmas period.
As clarified by the WMO, Each El Niño event is unique in terms of evolution, spatial distribution and impacts. However, it is usually associated with increased precipitation in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, and with drought conditions in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
Scientists’ predictions
Precursor signals are already underway. Between late April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific — the reference zone for El Niño monitoring — were already approaching critical El Niño thresholds, according to observations collected by several WMO monitoring platforms. But the most worrying fact comes from beneath the surface.
The deep waters of the tropical Pacific are recording temperatures more than 6°C higher than the seasonal average: a huge heat reservoir that is fueling the observed surface warming. Like a pot on the stove, the heat accumulated in the deepest layers is slowly emerging.
Why is the phenomenon so worrying
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres chose clear words in his video message released on the occasion of the update:
The science is clear: El Niño will arrive on our doorstep in the next few months with a 90% probability. The world must see this as the urgent climate warning that it is. El Niño conditions will fuel global warming. The impacts will be even stronger, spread even further and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action commensurate with the crisis: ending dependence on fossil fuels, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting the most vulnerable and providing early warning systems for all.
Watch @UN Secretary-General @antonioguterres’ message about the emerging El Niño that is set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months.
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— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) June 2, 2026
An appeal that comes at a delicate moment, in which many governments are still far from the climate objectives set by international agreements. The critical threshold is now getting closer and closer. In fact, there is a 91% probability that at least one of the next five years will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C of global warming, the symbolic limit of the Paris Agreement. And there is also an 86% probability that a new temperature record will be broken, surpassing the record set by 2024, the hottest year on record so far.
El Niño is therefore not just a Pacific anomaly. It is a global climate amplifier: when it develops, its consequences ripple through the atmosphere to the four corners of the planet, affecting water availability, agricultural yields, public health and the stability of ecosystems. El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but the intensity with which its effects manifest themselves today is no longer just “natural”: it overlaps with a planet already overheated by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Base temperatures are higher, seas are warmer, climate extremes are more frequent and devastating.
We must prepare for a potentially intense El Niño event, which will exacerbate droughts and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the oceans,” said Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General. “The last El Niño, 2023-2024, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. The WMO community will monitor closely the situation in the coming months to provide useful information to the decision-making processes of governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Early seasonal forecasts and early warnings are critical to saving lives and mitigating the impact on our economies and communities.
