The olive oil market, marked by two years of unprecedented crisis, is preparing for a turning point. Deoleo, the world’s largest manufacturer and owner of the Bertolli and Carapelli brandspredicts “liquid gold” prices will halve from all-time highs, thanks to a promising harvest in the 2024-2025 season
But let’s recap the situation for a moment. Recent years have put olive oil producers to the test. Extreme weather conditions and prolonged droughts in southern Europe have led to drastically reduced harvests, especially in Spain, Greece and Tunisia. This triggered a dramatic increase in prices, with extra virgin olive oil reaching 9-10 euros per liter in Spanish (but also Italian) supermarkets.
Spain, which alone represents over 40% of world production, has suffered the brunt of the crisis, with production halved compared to historical averages. However, it seems that the panorama is finally changing: forecasts for the new season indicate production close to 1.3 million tonnes, almost double compared to last year.
In Italy, however, the scenario appears less optimistic than in Spain. Estimates for the current season indicate a national production of around 224 thousand tonnes, a sharp decline compared to the previous year. This result is strongly influenced by extreme climatic events and persistent water stress, which have particularly affected the southern regions, responsible for approximately two thirds of Italian olive production.
When prices will drop
Second Miguel Ángel Guzmán, sales manager at Deoleothe olive oil market is showing signs of stabilization. Prices of extra virgin olive oil in Andalusia fell to 6 euros per liter in November, with further drops expected in the coming months. If the trend is confirmed, retail prices they could drop to around 5 euros per liter in 2025.
The easing of prices at the source is expected to begin between November, December and January, provided that weather and harvesting conditions remain stable in the coming weeks – specified Guzmán.
Olive oil and climate change
The problem is that the challenges posed by climate change to the oil sector remain to be addressed:
Favorable weather conditions and recent rainfall have improved the outlook, but the sector remains vigilant. Climate change is an existential challenge that requires investments in advanced agricultural technologies and more resistant olive varieties – said Guzmán.
Although a return to normality seems close, the crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of the sector in the face of global warming.
Deoleo and other leading manufacturers are focusing on innovation and sustainability to face future uncertainties. Investments in smart irrigation, environmentally friendly agricultural practices and strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change are at the heart of this transformation.
Will prices drop in Italy?
Deoleo reassures on the future of olive oil, predicting a drop in prices thanks to abundant harvests in the main producing countries such as Spain and Greece. In Italy, however, the situation remains complex, with production still decreasing, which could keep prices high in the short term (but will the prices of the Deoleo group brands in Italy still drop?).
The latest estimates confirm this trend: How much does extra virgin olive oil cost this year? How the year went (and the forecast for 2025)
The well-known company Monini, in reality, had announced that the price of extra virgin olive oil is destined to fall in Italy by the end of 2024: Extra virgin olive oil: the unexpected turning point on prices in Italy announced by Monini
