A new disturbance descending on Italy puts an end to the anomaly April summer and brings the country back to typically spring conditions – indeed, for a few days, even winter ones. The most significant change will not be the worsening of the weather itself – variable and unstable conditions are the norm this season – but rather the speed and intensity of the temperature drop expected until Saturday across much of the country.
A record collapse: from +8°C to -8°C anomaly in less than 24 hours
Until a few hours ago, Italian thermometers recorded temperatures well above the 1991-2020 climatological average, with anomalies of up to +8/+9°C in the hottest hours: the result of a promontory of North African high pressure that pushed values to typical June levels, with widespread peaks of 27-28°C. Now the situation is abruptly reversed.
According to the forecasts of Margherita Erriu, meteorologist at Meteored Italia, the first drops are already affecting the North-East – Friuli Venezia Giulia, Trentino-Alto Adige and Veneto – while by the first part of Friday the cooling will extend to the rest of the North and the central-southern Adriatic regions, to reach during the day also the Tyrrhenian areas and, more marginally, the two largest islands. «In just about 24 hours we will go from positive anomalies locally around +8°C to negative anomalies in some locations around -8°C», explains the meteorologist.
The coldest day will be Friday 1 May, when in the central-southern Apennines – in particular between Marche, Abruzzo and Calabria – values of up to 10°C below the average for early May will be recorded. In much of the country, temperatures will return to around 20°C even in the central hours of the day, with differences of up to 10°C compared to 24-48 hours earlier. Precipitation, distributed irregularly and discontinuously, will be concentrated above all on the Adriatic side, in the South and on the North-West mountains, and will then touch the islands.
Despite the bad weather, May 1st will see good weather prevail over much of the Peninsula, albeit with fresh air and residual ventilation that is more perceptible in the Centre-South. Some isolated showers may still affect the Major Islands and Lower Calabria.
The weekend: sun and temperatures rising
A gradual improvement is expected from Saturday. The temperature rise will initially affect Sardinia, Northern Italy and the central Tyrrhenian regions, with values between 21 and 25°C; On Sunday the recovery will also extend to the Adriatic side, bringing temperatures back in line with or slightly above the average for the period. On Saturday 2 May the sky will be clear almost everywhere, with highs up to 24-25°C. A recommendation not to be underestimated: the sun in early May is physically equivalent to that of mid-August, so sunscreen and protection are more necessary than ever.
On Sunday 3 May the weather will remain good overall, with a partial increase in cloud cover only between Sardinia and the North-West.
The forecasts in detail
First trends for the summer
While Italy is dealing with this abrupt spring awakening, the large international data centers are already starting to outline the first trends for the summer season. The picture that emerges is that of a generally hot summer, in line with the trend of recent years, but accompanied by slightly higher than average rainfall. The seasonal forecasts – still experimental and with margins of uncertainty – indicate that as early as June the subtropical anticyclone will tend to dominate the Mediterranean, bringing stability and temperatures above normal especially in the Centre-South.
July promises to be the hottest month, with episodes of intense heat across much of the country. The rains, mainly linked to afternoon thunderstorms in the mountainous areas of the North, could be above average especially in June and August, while July should remain at normal values. The overall balance therefore outlines a hot summer but more unstable than usual, with frequent alternations between sun and thunderstorms.
