Autumn could suddenly change its face right at the beginning of November. After a late October characterized by relatively mild temperatures, a very cold air mass could arrive in Italy from Eastern Europe, capable of bringing almost winter conditions to several regions.
This scenario is outlined by some of the latest simulations of the European meteorological model ECMWF, which hypothesize a sharp drop in temperatures between 3 and 4 November, accompanied by possible frosts, rain and snowfall on the Apennine mountains.
This is not yet a certain forecast: there are several days left and the trajectory of the cold air could change significantly. But the hypothesis of an early onset of winter is attracting the attention of experts.
Cold from Russia: what could happen in the first days of November
The possible change would be linked to a particular atmospheric configuration over northern Europe.
According to the simulations, an area of high pressure could extend towards Scandinavia, modifying the normal circulation of currents and favoring the movement of cold air from the Russian regions towards the Mediterranean. This is a dynamic known as retrogressionbecause the air masses move from east to west, in the opposite direction compared to the prevailing circulation in our latitudes.
If this configuration were to materialize, Italy could be reached by particularly cold Arctic-continental currents, with temperatures destined to fall even below seasonal averages.
Some meteorological reconstructions already speak of a possible Burian, a term used to describe the outbreaks of freezing air coming from the eastern continental regions. However, it is premature to establish whether the phenomenon will really have characteristics that justify this definition.
Where the most intense cold could reach
The consequences would not be the same throughout Italy. The regions facing the Adriatic could be among the most exposed to the entry of eastern currents, with a significant drop in temperatures and an increase in atmospheric instability.
The Centre-South, in particular, could experience a worsening of meteorological conditions, with rain and showers favored by the encounter between cold air and still relatively warm sea surfaces.
Sicily and Sardinia could also be affected by rainfall, although distribution and intensity remain to be verified.
In the North, however, the hypothesized scenario envisages generally drier conditions, but decreasing temperatures and the possibility of the first frosts in the lowland areas, especially during the night and early morning hours.
Much will depend on the actual position of the high pressure over Scandinavia, which could direct the cold air mass towards Italy or move its main effects further east, between the Balkans and Greece.
Is snow returning to the Apennines? The expected quotas
One of the most interesting consequences of the possible cold outbreak concerns the return of snow to the mountains. The simulations currently available assume snowfall in the central Apennines starting from around 1,300 metres, especially between Marche, Umbria, Abruzzo and Molise. On the southern Apennines, however, the snow level could be around 1,500-1,600 metres.
These are preliminary indications, which could also be revised significantly in future updates. In fact, for snowfall to occur, the arrival of cold air is not enough: there must also be sufficiently intense precipitation and favorable thermal conditions in the different layers of the atmosphere.
For the moment, therefore, it is not possible to talk about certain snow nor to establish which locations will actually be affected.
Does a colder November mean winter will arrive earlier?
A possible episode of intense cold in the first days of November would not be sufficient to indicate how the entire winter season will evolve. Cold outbreaks can also occur during autumn and rapidly alternate with periods characterized by above-average temperatures.
