Autumn could show its coldest face right between October and November. After a phase characterized by the presence of high pressure, a decisive change in weather conditions is looming over Italy, with the arrival of arctic currents, a sharp drop in temperatures and the first snowfalls on the Apennine mountains.
According to the projections reported by Meteo Giornale, the worsening could begin as early as Friday 30 October, and then intensify over the All Saints weekend. The cold could also accompany us in the first days of November, before a possible return to milder conditions.
What will happen on All Saints weekend
At the origin of the change there would be a new structure of the European atmospheric circulation. The Atlantic anticyclone, currently extended over part of central-southern Europe, should move progressively northwards, until it reaches Scandinavia.
This movement would favor the descent of very cold air masses from the Arctic regions towards central Europe and the Mediterranean, also involving our peninsula.
The first signs of the worsening are expected on Friday 30 October, with the return of rain in some regions. However, the most marked turning point could arrive between Saturday 31 October and Sunday 1 November, when the entry of cold currents would lead to a more evident drop in temperatures.
The Bora and Tramontana winds will contribute to making the climate even more pungent, which could intensify especially along the Adriatic coasts and in the central-southern regions.
Where rain and snow will arrive
The worsening should mainly affect the Centre-South, with scattered rainfall and local showers. The most exposed regions would be Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily.
Along the Adriatic side, the cold currents coming from the north-east will meet the Apennine mountains, favoring the formation of clouds and precipitation.
Snow could also return to the mountains. The flakes are initially expected at the highest altitudes of the Apennines, but with the intensification of the cold air the snowfall level could locally drop below 1,500 metres.
We are therefore not talking about widespread snowfalls all the way to the plains, but about a first episode with a winter flavour, with temperatures potentially lower than seasonal averages.
How long will the cold last? The forecast for the first days of November
The change may not end with the weekend. In fact, current projections indicate the possibility that cold eastern currents will continue to affect Italy also in the first part of the following week.
New pulses of cold air, arriving from Eastern Europe and the Balkans, could keep temperatures at rather low values, especially in the regions most exposed to northern winds.
A first attenuation of the cold is hypothesized around November 5-6, when high pressure could gradually return to influence the weather in Italy, favoring a rise in temperatures.
A more significant change in atmospheric circulation could instead occur around November 10, with the possible return of more temperate currents and the rains typical of the autumn period.
However, this is a trend yet to be confirmed: several days later, the intensity and duration of the cold outbreak can change significantly.
Will there also be snow on the plains?
For those hoping to see the first flakes in the cities too, the prospects are different. At the moment there are no reliable indications of widespread snowfall in the plains in the first days of November.
The snow should remain mainly confined to the mountainous areas, although a possible more pronounced drop in temperatures could lower the altitude locally.
The most significant fact, for now, is the possibility of an abrupt transition from typically autumnal conditions to a decidedly colder climate. To understand whether this phase will really mark the early start of winter, or whether it will remain just a brief parenthesis, it will be necessary to follow the updates in the next few days.
