The wait is now coming to an end for the awarding of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, the official proclamation of which is set for tomorrow, Friday 9 October, at 11 am at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. As per rigorous tradition, the Norwegian Committee maintains the utmost confidentiality on the official list of the 287 applications received – divided between 208 people and 79 organizations – whose names will remain secret for 50 years.
Humanitarian candidacies at the top of the predictions
However, analyzing the assessments of experts, the data of the main geopolitical research institutes such as the Peace Research Institute Oslo and the odds of bookmakers such as Sisal, it is not the great leaders of international politics who clearly guide the predictions, but rather the operational structures involved in the most dramatic crisis contexts on the planet.
At the top of the list holders’ preferences are the Emergency Response Rooms of Sudan, the networks of volunteers who offer medical assistance and community kitchens in the midst of civil war, banked at 5.00.
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Immediately behind are the Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba at 7.50 and the Save the Children organization at 9.00. Significant space also for global institutions such as the International Court of Justice given at 12, the UNHCR at 16 and the Committee for the Protection of Journalists listed at 20, demonstrating how the world’s attention is focused on international law and the defense of civilians.
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From the International Space Station to the (crazy) ambitions of Donald Trump
Among the most fascinating and unusual options, the candidacy of the International Space Station stands out, proposed as a potential surprise at 20. For over 25 years, the orbital outpost has represented a unique model of scientific cooperation in which astronauts and cosmonauts from opposing powers continue to work side by side despite the geopolitical tensions on Earth.
Decidedly at odds with the spirit of recognition is US President Donald Trump, who has returned to openly demanding recognition. Despite his repeated declarations (which add to those of last year) in which he claims to have saved millions of lives by solving “eight wars” and to deserve the prize more than anyone else, the chances of victory for the American tycoon are given at 150 by Sisal analysts. But beyond the bookmakers, the reality tells a different story, just mention his responsibilities in the Middle East, the conflict in Iran and international policies that have nothing to do with peace.
Even further down the probability grid appear figures such as Pope Leo
