For over thirty years he has taught us to look far away, giving us images that have changed our relationship with the universe. The Hubble Space Telescope it was not just a scientific instrument, but an open window onto the cosmos, capable of describing the birth of stars and the vastness of space with a clarity never seen before. Now, however, that window is slowly closing. And the question many ask is as simple as it is uncomfortable: Will Hubble really fall to Earth?
The answer, according to scientists, is yes. Not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, but in the next few years. And it won’t be an elegant or controlled return.
Because Hubble’s orbit is lowering
Hubble orbits the Earth at several hundred kilometers above sea level, but space, at those altitudes, . There is a subtle resistance that, day after day, slows down the telescope and forces it to slowly lose altitude. It is a silent, invisible, but constant process.
Further complicating the situation is the Sun. When solar activity increases, the Earth’s atmosphere tends to expand, becoming denser even at orbital altitudes. This means more friction and faster decay. And that’s exactly why predictions aren’t set in stone.
The most up-to-date simulations indicate 2033 as the most likely year for final returnbut it is not excluded that, in the event of strong solar activity, everything could be anticipated already around 2029. Experts agree on one point: Hubble is unlikely to remain in orbit beyond 2040.
An uncontrolled return
In the original design, Hubble was never supposed to end up like this. It was designed to be reached and “managed” by the Space Shuttle, which could have guided its re-entry or made it safe. With the end of that program, however, this possibility disappeared. Today the telescope.
According to studies commissioned by NASAthe return does not represent a global threat, but it cannot be dismissed as a negligible event. During descent into the atmosphere, much of the structure will disintegrate due to friction, but some more robust fragments may survive and reach the earth’s surface.
The models indicate that this debris could fall along a very wide swath, between 350 and 800 kilometersmaking it impossible to know well in advance where they will end up. This is where the concern arises.
The risk to people remains low, because oceans and uninhabited areas cover most of the planet. Yet, the calculations speak for themselves a chance of an accident of approximately 1 in 330 along Hubble’s orbital trajectory. A value that exceeds the generally accepted safety threshold for uncontrolled reentries. In the most extreme cases, if large fragments were to hit highly populated urban areas, they are estimated some possible victimstheoretical numbers that serve more to understand risk than to predict concrete events.
This is why scientists insist on a key point: constantly monitor Hubble’s orbit. Only by observing its behavior in real time will it be possible to refine forecasts and reduce uncertainties.
Meanwhile, as its doom approaches, Hubble continues to do what it’s always done best: observe the universe and tell us about itreminding us that even scientific icons, sooner or later, have to deal with gravity.
