Southern Italy is preparing to deal with Cyclone Harry, an intense Mediterranean cyclone which, according to the main forecasting models, could represent the worst storm of the last twenty years. The most critical phase is expected between today and tomorrow, Monday 19 and Tuesday 20 January, with a weather pattern dominated by torrential rain, violent winds and extreme storm surges. The most exposed regions are Sardinia, Sicily and Calabria, where the red alert has already been triggered in large areas.
At the basis of the worsening is the deepening of a depression on the Sardinia Channel, destined to take on characteristics similar to those of a real cyclone. The system, named Harry by the Spanish meteorological agency, draws energy from the relatively mild waters of the Mediterranean and strong southerly currents, particularly Scirocco. This mix favors a continuous recall of humidity, fueling persistent rainfall and a marked reinforcement of ventilation.
Intense rain, storms and hydrogeological risk
Rainfall will be widespread and, in some areas, exceptionally heavy. Estimates indicate that over 200 millimeters of rain could fall in sectors of south-eastern Sardinia, eastern Sicily and Ionian Calabria in a few hours, with even higher peaks on the exposed mountains. The stau effect, linked to the impact of humid currents against the mountains, will increase the risk of storms, flooding and hydrogeological instability. The unstable conditions could last at least until Wednesday 21 January.
Stormy winds and storm surges up to 9 metres
In addition to rain, the winds and sea state are of greatest concern. Gusts of up to 100-110 km/h are expected, with strong storm intensity and possible wind storms between Sicily, Sardinia and Calabria. The seas will be very rough or large, with waves that could reach 8-9 meters along the most exposed coasts. Storm surges risk causing damage to coastal infrastructure and navigation problems. Precisely for this reason several municipalities, such as Giardini Naxos, are building sand walls to protect their coasts.
Weather alerts and safety measures
The Department of Civil Protection, in agreement with the Regions, has issued a warning of adverse weather conditions which includes a red alert for most of Sardinia, orange for sectors of Sicily and Calabria and yellow for other areas of the South and Basilicata. In some cities, closures of schools, universities and public offices have already been ordered, as well as the closure of markets, parks and sports facilities. The authorities recommend limiting travel, avoiding coastal areas, not crossing underpasses or flooded waterways and constantly following official updates.
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