Extreme heat is no longer just a matter of discomfort or weather records. It can become a direct threat to life.
According to a new report from Climate Impact Labthe current “Super El Niño” could be associated with approximately 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the first nine months of the climate event (June 2026 to February 2027), compared to a year considered normal.
Italy is also among the countries most involved in the projection, included among the top 50 states in the world for the estimated number of deaths linked to extreme heat.
@Climate Impact Lab
The data does not indicate a certain number of victims, as seems obvious, but an estimate developed by scientists based on expected temperatures, the vulnerability of populations and the ability of different territories to adapt to extreme events.
El Niño brings the climate towards a warmer future
The El Niño phenomenon, i.e. the anomalous warming of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific, can influence the global climate by causing variations in temperatures and precipitation. According to the Climate Impact Lab, this event could push average global temperatures up to levels that, without climate change, we might have expected in about twenty years.
A sort of “postcard from the future”, as a “postcard from the future”, as researchers define it: a preview of conditions that could become increasingly frequent if investments in climate adaptation do not increase.
This number may seem huge, but it is made up of people: parents, children, grandparents, neighbors, people who work and take care of their families, explained Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab.
@Climate Impact Lab
Countries where the heat could cause more victims
According to the report’s estimates, the heaviest effects will be concentrated above all in the countries of the global South, where high temperatures are often combined with greater exposure, more fragile health systems and fewer protection tools.
Countries with the highest number of additional deaths expected in the coming months include:
@Climate Impact Lab
(The overall estimates of the top 20 most affected countries also include states with lower numbers, but the report specifically highlights these areas as those with the greatest expected impact.)
While most of the expected casualties are in Africa, Asia and Latin America, the report highlights that no area of the planet is immune.
@Climate Impact Lab
Italy, like other European countries, is among those where extreme heat represents a growing threat, especially for the elderly, people with health problems, outdoor workers and more exposed communities. In recent years, our country has already experienced increasingly frequent and intense heat waves, with record temperatures and prolonged periods of drought.
Finally, the authors of the study underline that many of the predicted deaths can be avoided through targeted interventions: early warning systems for heat, cooling centers, greater availability of water, protection of workers exposed to high temperatures and strengthening of health services.
The challenge, according to the researchers, is to move from emergency management to preparation.
Because the heat that we consider exceptional today could become, in the coming decades, an increasingly normal condition. And preparing above all means protecting the most vulnerable people before the emergency arrives.
