About 470 kilometers from the coast ofOregonUnited States, hidden in the dark depths of the Pacific Ocean, lies theAxial Seamountone of underwater volcanoes most active in the world. Scientists, carefully monitoring its behavior, predict that this majestic geological structure will erupt before the end of 2025. A bold prediction, but supported by years of studies and a surprising rhythmic pattern that characterizes the volcano.
Second Bill Chadwicka geophysicist at Oregon State University, the volcano is comparable to a pressure cooker now nearing its maximum limit. During the 2024 American Geophysical Union annual meeting, Chadwick said:
Considering current trends and assuming the Axial reaches the inflation threshold observed in 2015, we estimate that the eruption could occur between now and the end of 2025.
Why is Axial Seamount so predictable?
Predict the volcanic eruptions It’s a tall order, often impossible, but the Axial Seamount is an exception. Located along the ridge of Juan de Fucathis volcano has proven to be surprisingly regular in its eruptive manifestations, which occurred in 1998, 2011 and 2015. Before each explosion, the sequence repeats itself: the seabed rises due to the accumulation of magma, the earthquakes increase in intensity and finally the eruption explodes in all its power.
This coherence has made Axial Seamount an ideal laboratory for studying volcanoes. Over the past decade, a vast network of sensors has documented every movement and anomaly. Starting in late 2023, researchers detected a significant increase in the volcano’s inflation rate, which doubled compared to previous years. In parallel, seismic activity has reached an alarming peak, with over 500 earthquakes per day recorded by mid-2024. As Chadwick notes:
It can’t go on like this for long: the volcano is now under immense pressure.
The importance of technology and discoveries under the caldera
The Axial Seamount is the most monitored underwater volcano in the worldor. Thanks to a network of underwater sensors, autonomous vehicles and remote-controlled robots, scientists were able to closely observe the behavior of the caldera. A recent study used a cutting-edge technique, Full Waveform Inversion (FWI), to produce high-resolution images of underlying structures.
The analyzes reveal the presence of a vast main magmatic reservoir located under the volcano, with a liquid magma content of up to 37%. Below, a conduit brings magma from deep within the Earth’s crust. To the west, researchers identified a second, smaller, reservoir connected to the main one through a thin channel. Towards the east, however, a sort of low seismic velocity “throat” connects the main reservoir with the surface, bringing the magma to the eruptive fissures.
This asymmetric system explains why recent eruptions have been concentrated predominantly on the eastern side of the volcano.
Our understanding of the volcano is now more detailed than ever, and this impending eruption could provide us with crucial data for the future,” said Mark Zumberge of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Despite the dramatic scenario described, the eruption of Axial Seamount is not expected to pose any danger to the human population, given its remote location in the Pacific. However, the event will provide a unique opportunity for scientists to better understand underwater volcanic processes and further refine prediction methods.
