Between today November 11th and tomorrow November 12, 2025the Earth will be hit by two powerful coronal mass ejections (CME)phenomena generated by our star that project enormous quantities of plasma and magnetic fields into space. According to a model developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)the two solar flows will merge shortly before reaching our planet, giving rise to a “CME cannibal”or a fusion of two expulsions capable of triggering one very intense geomagnetic storm.
NOAA currently plans one G3 level geomagnetic storm (strong)but the energy released by the fusion of the two flows could push it up to one G4 (acute)as has already happened in the past. In these cases, the Northern Lights — usually visible only at high latitudes — can also occur over Italy, especially in the northern regions. According to experts, the fusion of the two expulsions it could happen shortly before impact with Earth. However, since it is a prediction based on scientific modelsit is not excluded that the event could occur immediately after the passage of our planetmaintaining anyway significant effects on the Earth’s geomagnetic activity.
The risks of an intense solar storm and the effects on Earth
The geomagnetic storms very powerful they can have significant repercussions: disorders in electrical networksmalfunctions of GPS systems, radio interference and damage to satellites in orbit. In history, extreme events like the Carrington storm of 1859 they showed how much such a phenomenon could impact terrestrial technology. In an increasingly connected world, even a brief communications interruption or large-scale blackout would have significant consequences.
What is a cannibalistic CME and why can it be so dangerous
The two CMEs in question originated from X-class solar flaresamong the most powerful ever observed, generated by the sunspot AR 4274considered among the most unstable of the last period. The first blast, classy X 1.8was recorded on November 9th at 7.33amwhile the second, classy X 1.2occurred at 10.22am on November 10th. The different propagation speed of the two flows is the key to their future fusion: when the second, faster expulsion reaches the first, slower one, the two plasma waves combine generating a Cannibalistic CME.
There NASA explains that this type of phenomenon can create complex CME cloudswith magnetic structures much larger than normal ejections. These clouds, when they reach the Earth, they prolong the duration and intensity of geomagnetic stormswith visible effects even for several days. According to NOAA, the most intense phase is expected betweenNovember 11th and 12thwith a residual tail that could extend to November 13th (level G1, minor).
Northern Lights in Italy: when and where it will be visible
The polar auroras are generated when charged particles coming from solar wind come into contact with the atoms of oxygen and nitrogen present in the upper part of the Earth’s atmosphere, producing spectacular beams of colored light. Based on NOAA models, the peak of magnetic activity should occur around 04:00 on November 12th (Italian time), with a Kp index equal to or greater than 7 on a scale of 9. From this value onwards, auroras become potentially also visible in Italyas already happened during the events of 2024 and at the beginning of 2025.
The highest chances of observing the phenomenon will be in the regions of Northern Italyin particular Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Piedmontbut in case of ideal atmospheric conditions the possibility of seeing it even further south is not excluded.
