COP29 in Baku ended at 2.30am on 24 November, with a painful agreement on climate financebut with nothing done on climate action.
After two weeks of difficult negotiations, the countries agreed to the allocation $300 billion per year by 2035 to help developing countries tackle the climate crisis. However, the conference .
The agreement suffered on climate finance
The agreement on climate finance was reached only after a long tug-of-war between developed and developing countries. Developing countries have called for a more ambitious financial commitment from developed countries, which are historically responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions. The final agreement provides for the allocation of 300 billion dollars a year by 2035, a figure lower than the requests of developing countries, but still higher than the previous target of $100 billion.
A controversial part of the agreement, in this context, concerns China’s position. Despite now being one of the biggest polluters globally, Beijing continues to claim the status of “developing country”, obtained in 1992, which allows it to have no climate financing obligations. This position was strengthened by an ad hoc article included in the final text, which reassures China that its possible contribution will remain on a voluntary basis.
Mitigation: the big absentee
On the mitigation front, COP29 recorded a substantial failure. Despite the urgency to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, countries have failed to agree on concrete actions to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Global Stocktake: a worrying postponement
Also on the implementation front Global Stocktakethe outcome of COP29 is disappointing. Global Stocktake is a process of evaluating countries’ climate commitments and actions, which takes place every five years. Work on the Global Stocktake, which should have translated into concrete actions to increase the ambition of national commitments, was postponed to 2025. This postponement was viewed with concern by many observers, who they fear that it could jeopardize the possibility of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Adaptation: progress and uncertainties
COP29 marked a step forward on the topic of adaptation to climate change, with the definition of a more precise framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This goal, set out in the Paris Agreement, aims to strengthen adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.
In Baku, countries agreed on a set of indicators to monitor progress towards the GGA, with a focus on crucial aspects such as community resilience, ecosystem protection and access to adaptation finance. Among the indicators adopted are those relating to ecosystems, social inclusion, human rights and gender equality.
However, uncertainties remain regarding the financing and implementation of adaptation measures. Developing countries, which are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, require greater financial resources to implement effective adaptation plans. Furthermore, greater commitment is needed from all countries to integrate adaptation into national policies and promote a transformative approach that addresses the root causes of vulnerability.
Carbon markets: a controversial agreement
The agreement reached on the regulation of carbon markets (Article 6 of the Paris Agreement) was one of the most debated topics at COP29. After years of negotiations, countries have finally agreed on a framework for international cooperation in reducing emissions, including mechanisms for trading carbon credits.
However, the agreement has been criticized by many NGOs and activists for the lack of guarantees on the protection of human rights and the credibility of carbon credits. There are fears that the new system could favor projects that do not contribute effectively to reducing emissions or that have negative impacts on local communities.
Another critical point concerns the lack of transparency and accountability in the system. Some countries have expressed concern that carbon credits could be used for greenwashing, i.e. to mask climate inaction without a real commitment to reducing emissions.
Climate justice and human rights
COP29 reiterated the importance of address climate change fairly and justlytaking into account the needs and vulnerabilities of the most affected countries and communities. However, concrete results on this front have been limited.
The Just Transition Programme, which aims to ensure that the transition to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive for all, it was postponed to the intermediate negotiations in Bonn. The same applies to the work program on gender issues, which promotes women’s participation and the integration of a gender perspective in climate policies.
Furthermore, as already mentioned, the Article 6 agreement does not include sufficient guarantees on the protection of human rights.
Biodiversity and CBAM
COP29 recognized the importance of protecting biodiversity as part of climate action. Biodiversity loss and climate change are two interconnected crises which require an integrated approach.
However, the conference failed to establish a specific strand of negotiations on climate and biodiversity, limiting itself to launching the Rio Trio Initiative, which aims to promote coordinated action between the United Nations Conventions on climate, biodiversity and desertification.
Furthermore, the BRICS attempt to insert a new negotiating point on the European CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) failed. CBAM is a carbon border adjustment mechanism introduced by the EU to tax imports of goods from countries with less stringent environmental standards, in order to prevent “carbon leakage”. The question of the link between trade and climate change will be the subject of a dialogue starting in 2025.
Towards COP30 in Belem
COP29 in Baku left many crucial questions open, which will have to be addressed during the COP30 in Belemin Brazil. Among these, mitigation, transition away from fossil fuels, climate finance and the implementation of Global Stocktake.
COP30 represents a crucial opportunity to relaunch climate action and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. It will be essential that countries show up in Belem with more ambitious commitments and with the desire to overcome the divisions and national interests that have slowed down progress in Baku.
