Don’t say Azerbaijan (and a bunch of other states in that range there), without saying petrolium. Here black gold fits like cheese on macaroni, there is no point in pretending that this is not the case, which is why the Conference of the Parties on climate number 29 Baku (this year it was the turn of a country in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, but above all the conflict between Russia and Ukraine decided other fates) is exactly like the one that took place last year in the United Arab Emirates. We smell déjà vu.
On the one hand oil and gas as if it were raining and on the other the good intentions for a “better future”: the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan – which will begin on 11 November – comes while scientists say that the continuing record emissions of carbon dioxide they mean that “humanity’s future hangs in the balance” and at the same time as a new report speaks clearly: Azerbaijan will soon opt for a major expansion of fossil gas production over the next decade.
The authors of the study indeed concluded that crucial climate negotiations should not be supervised by “cthose who have a vested interest in keeping the world hooked to fossil fuels”. But let’s go in order.
The report
The new report by Urgewald and CEE Bankwatch has effectively found that Azerbaijan is destined to increase its gas production by a third over the next decadewith fossil fuel companies planning to spend $41.4 billion on the country’s gas fields. According to the report, Socar alone spent nearly $300 million exploring for new oil and gas between 2022 and 2024.
The analysis is based on data from Rystad Energy, the industry’s leading supplier, and includes current gas production, new resources approved for development and other known resources. Combustion of the expected gas production would produce approx 780 million tons of CO2more than double the annual emissions of the United Kingdom alone. Yet rather than discovering more reserves, scientists concluded in 2021 that most existing gas reserves needed to remain in the ground to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Nothing has been done about it: only last year, in 2023, Socar invested the 97% of its capital expenditures on oil and gas projects, according to the report. He indeed launched a “green energy division” just weeks after the COP29 host country was named, promising investments in wind, solar and carbon capture technologies, but – again according to the report – Socar’s renewables operations remain a drop in the ocean.
Socar works with some of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies, including BP, TotalEnergies, Russian oil giant Tatneft and the UAE state oil company Adnoc. And we know it: Adnoc CEO Sultan Al Jaber was president of COP28 in Dubai, where nations managed to agree to phase out fossil fuels, as many wanted, choosing instead the weaker ambition to “abandon fossil fuels”.
Finally, Azerbaijan’s climate action plan was rated “critically insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) in September.
Azerbaijan is among a small group of countries that has weakened its climate target (and) the country is doubling down on fossil fuel extraction, CAT analysts said.
So yes, absolutely yes: we smell déjà vu.
