The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not only affect petrol pumps. According to Farmindustria, the European pharmaceutical sector could find itself in serious difficulty as early as the summer, with concrete shortages of everyday medicines – paracetamol, antibiotics, antidiabetics – and even oncology drugs, the production of which depends largely on petrochemical precursors that pass through the strait.
The third shock in four years
The alarm was raised by Marcello Cattani, president of Farmindustria, who spoke in Rome at the event “Innovation, Investments, Skills. The pharmaceutical industry as a priority asset of Made in Italy“, organized on the occasion of the National Day of Made in Italy promoted by MIMIT.
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The war in Iran represents the third consecutive shock in four years, after the Ukraine and Red Sea crisis, this time affecting logistics, energy and production costs all together. Projections speak of overall increases of more than 20%, to be added to the 30% increase already recorded from 2021 to today. In a managed price system, these variations fall entirely on companies.
The price increases affect the entire supply chain: +25% on aluminium, +25% on glass, +15% on active ingredients. Aluminum is not mined in Europe but comes from China, India and Australia. Every energy crisis triggers hoarding that reduces available volumes, with increasingly narrow margins of maneuver for those seeking to diversify supply.
Forward stocks and dependence on Asia
On the inventory front, the situation is, for now, manageable. Companies generally have sufficient stocks for a few months, the critical point is the structural dependence on China and India for 74% of the active ingredients. A vulnerability that has already emerged during the Covid pandemic and that every geopolitical crisis makes acute again. If the conflict is not resolved quickly, the risk of supply limitations in Europe and Italy would become very real. The Confindustria Study Center predicts zero Italian growth if the war lasts until June, and a recession of -0.7% if the conflict extends into the fourth quarter.
The American factor: the MFN principle
Further complicating the picture is US pharmaceutical policy. On May 12, 2025, the Trump administration signed an executive order introducing the Most Favored Nation (MFN) principle: drug prices in the USA are brought into line with the lowest level recorded in other advanced countries. A measure which, according to Cattani, is redefining the global balance of the sector, attracting investment flows estimated at 400 billion dollars to the United States in the next five years. The specular risk for Europe is a loss of around 100 billion euros of investments over the same period.
What the Italian industry is asking for
The topic is not new. Already in April 2025, in a separate meeting between the Minister of the Ministry of Business and Made in Italy (MIMIT) Adolfo Urso and Farmindustria at Chiesi in Parma, on the occasion of Made in Italy Day, the priorities had been put in black and white. For Urso:
Pharmaceuticals best represents what is meant by #MadeinItaly and what we would like it to be: identity and innovation. We have already intervened at European level so that Europe is more aware of how to support the sector, which is strategic for health, through a review of the current directives. In such a complex global context, it is necessary to choose responsibly, protecting the European market from unfair competition and implementing a sustainable industrial policy, capable of encouraging innovation, research and the competitiveness of our companies”.
Cattani had insisted on the need to
A strategy that aims at a radical reform of the governance of public pharmaceutical spending, with adequate financing and the introduction of new models based on the value of treatments, to improve access, and at actions to increase the competitiveness of companies and attract investments, in line with the positive action that MIMIT is implementing.
A year later, with the Hormuz crisis in the background, those same requests return with renewed urgency and the margin for postponement has now narrowed.
