Ever heard of “conflict carbon”? These are all those greenhouse gas emissions directly and indirectly generated by a war. And we’re not just talking about the fuel used by military vehicles: war activates a complex and destructive chain that impacts the climate on multiple levels. It is an extreme form of pollution, often ignored in official analyses, because it is “not accounted for” in national budgets.
What is clear now is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not just cause human and social devastation. It has produced climate-changing emissions equal to 236.8 million tonnes of CO2, and now Moscow could be called upon to pay over 37 billion euros in what would be the world’s first case of climate compensation for a war.
The Damage Registry for Ukraine will begin accepting climate compensation claims in the coming months. Kiev plans to officially submit its application to the Council of Europe in early 2026.
This could be an “unprecedented” step, which aims to recognize the direct responsibility of a State for environmental damage resulting from an armed conflict. Not only for the local consequences, but for the impact on the global atmosphere.
Forests destroyed and biodiversity at risk
According to the report by the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War (IGGAW) group, a research group supported by the European Climate Foundation (ECF) and the Environmental Policy and Advocacy Initiative in Ukraine (EPAIU), the combination of these factors brings the “social cost of carbon” resulting from Russian aggression to 43.8 billion dollars, approximately 37.7 billion euros.
“The climate is also a victim”
In many ways, Russia is fighting a dirty war and our climate is also a victim, said Pavlo Kartashov, Ukrainian Deputy Minister for Economy, Environment and Agriculture, during a COP30 event in Belém, Brazil.
The conflict burns fuel, destroys forests, demolishes buildings, consumes large quantities of steel and concrete. All this is indeed “conflict carbon”, with an enormous climate impact.
Furthermore, according to the IGGAW report:
The emissions thus generated are equivalent to the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia combined.
What will happen now?
What is happening now in Ukraine starkly illustrates an often ignored aspect of conflicts: war is also an accelerator of the climate crisis. If this environmental compensation is granted, it could pave the way for future claims against all states that compromise the global climate in times of war.
