For the first time since records have existed, global greenhouse gas emissions appear set to decline. The UN, in its latest report released on 28 October 2025, predicts a 10% decline by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. It is a historic signal, but not yet sufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as required by the Paris Agreement.
According to analysis by the United Nations Secretariat for Climate Change (UNFCCC), if the new national plans are fully implemented, emissions will begin to decline over the next ten years. However, the cut necessary to stay below the climate safety threshold should be 60% by 2035. The gap between commitments and reality therefore remains enormous.
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, commented: “For the first time, humanity is clearly bending the emissions curve downwards, although not yet fast enough. Now it is up to COP30 and the world to show how we intend to accelerate.”
Our new NDC report shows: Countries are making progress & laying clear stepping stones toward net-zero emissions, but must urgently pick up the peace.
Additional data shows: Global emissions clearly falling for the first time, by around 10% by 2035.
More: https://t.co/gRfPVWaatj pic.twitter.com/1AB70lE6MG
— Simon Stiell (@simonstiell) October 28, 2025
Behind this timid trend reversal lies some encouraging data. The UNFCCC Synthesis Report 2025, released on the same day, shows that the 64 countries that have updated their national contributions (NDCs) cover around 30% of global emissions. Together, they aim to reduce their emissions by 17% compared to 2019, with the prospect of peaking before 2030 and starting a steady decline.
The new strategies, the report underlines, are more complex: 89% of countries have objectives that concern the entire economy and 73% include measures to adapt to climate change. The integration of social issues such as “just transition” and gender equality is also growing. 70% of governments have policies in place to prevent the energy transition from increasing inequalities.
The UN document also notes a strong increase in international cooperation and the involvement of non-state actors – regions, businesses, civil society – who in almost all cases participate in the implementation of national plans. It is a transition that extends “to the entire society”, but which still suffers from serious financial limits: developing countries declare needs of over 1900 billion dollars, between mitigation and adaptation.
Political challenges remain decisive. The United States, where the Trump administration has scaled back climate policies, shows an uncertain trajectory. China, responsible for nearly a third of the world’s emissions, has promised a 7–10% cut by 2035 but without setting a peak date.
As Stiell recalled in his official statement, “ten years after the Paris Agreement we can say that it produces concrete progress, but it must proceed much more quickly and equitably. The acceleration must start now.”
