The market ofItalian extra virgin olive oil is currently characterized by a complex dynamic, influenced by multiple factors that make difficult to accurately predict future prices. As the new olive harvest season approaches, experts are focusing on first production estimates how much oil will cost by 2025.
To answer the crucial question on the price of olive oil, the Interregional Association of Olive Producers (AIPO) used a linear regression statistical model based on data from the last four years.
Analysis of previous years
In recent years, the olive oil market has seen a fluctuating trend. In the 2021prices fluctuated between 4 and 5 €/kgthanks to good production and favorable climatic conditions, which guaranteed relative price stability.
However, the situation began to change in 2022with a surge in prices between 6 and 7 €/kg. The drought has reduced production, leading to a rise in prices to compensate for the short supply. 2023 then recorded further increases, with prices between 8 and 9 €/kgcaused by unfavorable climatic conditions and an increase in energy costs which have weighed on producers.
2024 saw a further increasewith average prices included between 9 and 11 €/kg. High temperatures and long periods of drought, followed by heavy rains and falling temperatures, have made it difficult to keep supply constant. These climate changes have contributed to increasing prices, directly impacting the quantity of oil available.
The forecast for 2025
To estimate 2025 prices, a linear regression model was chosen that considers factors such as inflation, energy costs, supply and demand. However, there are other important variables that can influence the market, including global oil production (especially in Spain, the world leader) and trade policies at community and international levels. Additionally, currency fluctuations may introduce additional price changes.
The regression model applied was corrected with a conservative factor, estimating a decrease of 16-19.17% to reflect market uncertainty. Taking these elements into account, the average price of extra virgin olive oil for 2025 is expected to be Between 8.40 and 9.70 €/kgtherefore remaining in line with recent market trends. Hard times, therefore, for those hoping for a drop in prices which will remain substantially stable like this year.
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