An asteroid has canceled most of life on earth about 65 million years ago. It is a fact that we all know and that, from time to time, brings to mind the question: Could it happen again?
According to science, yes. But how probable it is What happens in the course of the life of a ordinary person? This question answered a research guided by Carrie Nugentpublished on Arxiv and out on the Planetary Science Journalwhich calculated the probability of dying due to the impact of an asteroid And he compared it with other more familiar risks.
Simulations on millions of asteroids and results that surprise
The team analyzed 5 million objects close to the land (neo) With diameter over 140 meters, simultaneously simultaneously and counting possible impacts in a period of 150 years.
Result: an asteroid of this dimensions affects the earth, on average, once every 11,000 years.
But not all impacts are the same.
In addition to the probability of impact, therefore, it also matters the severity of the consequences.
More likely than lightning, less than a car accident
To give a clear context, scientists compared this data with the probability of dying for other causes during an average life of 71 years. And the results surprise:
In terms of lethality, events such as Carbon monoxide poisoning or Elephant attack They are much more dangerous when they happen. Some, like the collapse of a dry sand hole, are almost always fatal, albeit very rare.
Planetary defense: an insurance against the irreparable
The authors reiterate the importance of projects such as the mission Dart (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)which has shown that we can deviate an asteroid on a collision course with the earth.
As a report of the National Academiesworking on these technologies is like paying an insurance premium: an investment intended entirely to prevent a global catastrophe.
