We all noticed: landslides, floods, avalanches and coastal erosions threaten our homes, our cities and the safety of millions of people in Italy. The new Ispra 2024 report on hydrogeological instability offers us a picture as clear as worrying: Italy is a structurally vulnerable country. With over 94% of the municipalities exposed to risks, the management of the territory is confirmed as one of the most urgent and complex challenges to face.
Ours, in fact, is one of the European countries most affected by the landslide phenomenon. According to the inventory of landslide phenomena in Italy (Iffi), there are over 636,000 landslides surveyed on the national territory. A significant part – about 28% – is made up of rapid and highly destructive phenomena, such as mud flows, sudden collapses and transport of debris, which often cause serious damage and, unfortunately, also victims.
In recent years, some events have dramatically reported attention to this widespread risk: we think of Ischia in 2022, the flood in Emilia-Romagna of 2023 and, more recently, in San Felice a Cancello, in the province of Caserta.
The new version of the National Map of Landslit danger (Mosicatura 5.0) shows that about 69,500 km² – equal to 23% of the Italian territory – fall into areas considered to danger or attention. Even more worrying is the data on the areas classified to high and very high danger (P3 and P4), which affect 9.5% of the country. A clear sign of how urgent it is to face Italian hydrogeological fragility decisively.
The ISPRA report is in this sense a valuable tool to define the intervention priorities, plan the soil defense works and best allocate economic resources.
But let’s see the data that emerged more closely.
5.7 million people at risk of landslides
According to the ISPRA 2024 report, 5.7 million Italians live in landslide risk areas. Of these, 1.28 million are found in areas classified as high or very high danger (P3 and P4), equal to 2.2% of the national population.
Compared to the previous mosaication of 2020-2021, there was a 15% increase in the overall surfaces classified at risk, with an increase of 9.2% in the most dangerous areas (P3 and P4).
The most marked increases concern the autonomous province of Bolzano (+75.8%), Sardinia (+37.2%), Sicily (+36.7%) and Tuscany (+30.5%). This trend is partly due to an improvement in the cognitive framework, thanks to more detailed studies and updates of the maps by the Basin authorities and the autonomous provinces, since the plans of hydrogeological structure (PAI) are dynamic tools that constantly update.
The regions most affected in absolute numbers are:
The regions most affected in proportion to the population are instead:
The population residing in high dangerous areas (P3-P4) is composed for:
The regions with the highest share of the elderly are Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Liguria and Emilia-Romagna.
The provinces and the most affected municipalities
The territories with the highest concentration of population in P3-P4 areas are:
Among the capital municipalities, they stand out:
Also buildings, businesses and cultural heritage at risk
Hydrogeological instability does not only threaten people’s lives, but also the building, economic and cultural heritage of the country. These are the main data that emerge from the report:
The regions most affected for each category include Campania, Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Marche and Lazio.
The causes: morphology, climate and urbanization
Hydrogeological instability in Italy is the result of a complex combination of natural and anthropic factors, which have worsened in recent years also due to climate change.
The Italian territory presents morphological and geological characteristics that make it intrinsically vulnerable to phenomena such as landslides and floods. About 75% of the country are mountain or hilly, with slopes often unstable due to the widespread resentment of limb-taby-clayey rocks, not very resistant especially in the presence of water. In addition, the structure of the rigid rocks, often affected by faults and discontinuity, contributes to the instability of the slopes.
To these factors is added the increasingly extreme climate, which directly affects the triggering of landslides. Italy is in fact in a “Mediterranean hot spot” particularly exposed to the effects of climate change, which in recent years have led to a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Brief but intense rains or persistent rainfall, such as those that characterized the three-year period 2022-2024, increase the risk of superficial landslides, mud flows and floods, extending the impacts also to areas that in the past were less vulnerable. The increase in temperatures also affects the degradation of the permafrost at high altitude, further aggravating the instability of the mountain slopes. Indirectly, climate change also favor the increase in fires, which deprive the soil of the vegetable cover, thus exposing it to a greater risk of erosion and instability.
To worsen the natural picture, increasingly intense anthropic pressures intervene. Urbanization in Italy is almost tripled by the second post -war period to date, with artificial surfaces passed from 2.7% of 1950 to 7.16% in 2023. Often this growth was not accompanied by effective planning, increasing the number of people and goods exposed to risk.
The abandonment of rural areas, especially mountain and hilly, led to the loss of maintenance of the terraces, dry stone walls and drainage systems, fundamental for the stability of the slopes. Interventions such as road cuts, excavations and building overloads then contributed to increasing the fragility of the territory. Even along the coasts, anthropization has deeply altered natural morphology, reducing the transport of sediments and causing erosion, with an increased risk of coastal floods.
What is being done?
To counter hydrogeological instability, coordinated actions are needed: territory planning, maintenance, constant monitoring, structural interventions and sustainable management of agricultural and forestry areas.
The ISPRA manages two key platforms:
To date, Rendis has surveyed almost 26,000 interventions for a total value of 19.2 billion euros financed in 25 years. However, only 34% of the interventions are concluded. Another 34% is still to be started or lacks data. The average time of realization of a work? 4.7 years.
In conclusion, the Ispra 2024 report gives us back the image of an Italy in which hydrogeological instability is now a structural condition, not a sporadic emergency. More than one Italian out of 10 lives in a territory subject to landslides, floods or erosion and also infrastructures, businesses, cultural heritage and the social fabric are fragile and increasingly exposed. The report clearly highlights that, despite the efforts, there is still a lot to do.
Investments are needed, but also culture of risk, prevention and collective awareness, because the safety of the territory concerns everyone, none excluded.
Here you can read the Ispra 2024 report.
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