A strong X7.1-class solar flare reached its peak on October 1 at 22:20 UTC (00:20 ET), generating a radio blackout (level R3) globally. The eruption occurred in the complex region of sunspot 3842, located almost in the center of the Earth-facing solar disk. This event marks the second most powerful flare of the current Solar Cycle, a significant jump in solar activity after a relatively quiet period.
Although a violent eruption could be expected, the X7.1 flare produced only a moderate coronal mass ejection (CME), confirmed by SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images. However, there is an Earth-bound component, which while not appearing particularly intense, has prompted NOAA to issue a G3 geomagnetic storm warning for October 4. Current estimates indicate that the ejection is expected to hit Earth on the European evening of October 4, although the intensity and exact timing remain uncertain.
Another powerful flare: the 3842 region continues to surprise
As if that wasn’t enough, the same region produced an even more intense flare: an X9.05 at 12:18 UTC (2:18 pm Italian time), the strongest in seven years, surpassing anything from the previous solar cycle. This flare generated another coronal mass ejection, also directed towards Earth. Coronagraph images show a complex situation with multiple simultaneous eruptions, including one that is suspected to be coming from a non-visible region.
Despite these predictions, scientists believe that we should not expect intense auroral phenomena like those recorded in May, but the double ejection will certainly make observation of the sky interesting in the next few hours.
The first ejection is expected to hit Earth in the next 24 hours, followed by the second the next day. This geomagnetic event is likely to generate auroras visible in high latitudes, with the possibility of extending to regions further south if the intensity of the geomagnetic storm remains high.
