While active volcanoes traditionally offer well -recognizable alarm signals – such as earthquakes and land deformations caused by the accumulation of magma and gas in the underground chambers – some volcanoes manage to erupt in an almost silent way, without any evident signal. Are the so -called “Stealthy” volcanoesor “silent”, and it is precisely on these that the last study published on Frontiers in Earth Science.
A team of scientists led by dr. Yuyu Li, of the University of Illinois, analyzed the behavior of the Veniaminofan icy volcano located over the Aleutine, in Alaska. Thanks to monitoring data collected during three consecutive summers, the researchers developed a predictive model able to explain the dynamics that lead to these “surprise” eruptions:
Despite the great progress in volcanic monitoring, some volcanoes continue to erupt without detectable notice, significantly increasing the risk for nearby populations.
Veniaminof, the invisible volcano
Veniaminof is one of the most active volcanoes of Alaska, yet from 1993 to today alone two of his thirteen eruptions They provided clear and timely signals to scientists. The 2021 event, for example, has been identified only Three days after the start of the eruption.
These episodes, defined “Stealthy” eruptionsthey represent a concrete threat: Veniaminof has produced in recent decades several Vei 3 level eruptions (volcanic explosiveness index), capable of projecting volcanic ashes up to 15 kilometers in height, interrupting Air traffic and creating dangers for communities and infrastructures regional.
The researchers examined six different volume configurations of the magmatic chamber, varying the flow speed of the magmathe depth of the underground tank and the geometric shape of the chamber. By comparing these models with the collected data, they identified the parameters that give rise to sudden or predictable eruptions.
The conditions that make a “stealthy” eruption
The model highlighted that a high flow of magma In a large magmatic chamber it can generate visible soil deformations and make the eruption easily predictable. Alternatively, a high flow in one small room It can cause a sudden explosion, but always accompanied by noticeable signals.
The silent eruptionson the other hand, occur when magma flows slowly in one small room. This scenario significantly reduces the possibilities of detecting anomalies with current monitoring systems.
Another crucial aspect concerns the rock temperature surrounding the magmatic chamber. If the magma is present over time, heat the walls of the chamber making them less inclined to break or deform. In practice, heat makes rocks more “elastic” and less subject to creating seismic signals or soil movements.
In particular, the combination between hot room, elongated shape, variable depth And Low Magma flow It represents the perfect mix for a stealth eruption.
To reduce the impact of these sudden eruptions, researchers suggest the adoption of High precision tools as Forum tiltmeters, strainmetri And optical fiber sensorstogether with emerging technologies such as monitoring of gas emissions, infrarasium and above all artificial intelligence.
Machine Learning techniques are being proven effective in recognizing subtle changes in volcanic behavior, especially in the analysis of seismic signals.
For Veniaminof, the addition of advanced sensors and a better use of satellite images could make a big difference. In perspective, combine models such as the one developed by the study with the Real -time observations can significantly improve the forecasting capacity of stealth eruptions, safeguarding human lives and reducing damage to infrastructure.
