Two hundred and sixteen million. This is the impressive number of people who, according to the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), risk being having to abandon their homes by 2050 due to climate change. A biblical exodus fueled by extreme weather events and the world’s inability to act in time. The latest report from the UN refugee agency, “No escape route“, published on November 12 during COP29 in Baku, tells the profound interconnection between climate, conflicts and forced displacements.
Over 120 million people have been forced to leave their homes, and of these, more than 75% live in countries highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The report highlights that by 2040, 65 nations could face devastating climate impacts, threatening the stability of already fragile communities.
The interaction between climate and conflicts
“The climate crisis is causing displacement in regions already home to large numbers of people uprooted by conflict and insecurity, worsening their situation and leaving them with nowhere safe to go,” declared Filippo GrandiUnited Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. An emblematic example is the Sudanwhere the armed conflict has pushed over 4 million people to flee internally, with 700,000 refugees crossing the border into Chad, a country already severely tested by desertification and water scarcity.
Refugees also face climate challenges in destination countries. According to the report, by 2050, many refugee camps, often located in already arid regions, they could experience up to 180 days of dangerous heat per year, double the rate today.
Furthermore, climate-related natural disasters are estimated to have affected over 20 million people in 2022 alone, a number expected to increase without immediate action. Floods, which are increasingly frequent, devastate the areas inhabited by refugees, as demonstrated by the passage of Cyclone Mocha which violently hit the refugee camps in Bangladesh, worsening the difficulties of those who fled from Myanmar.
Testimonials from the climate front
“In our region, where so many people have been displaced for so many years, we see the effects of climate change before our eyes,” said Grace Dorongclimate activist and former refugee from South Sudan. The experiences of displaced people like Dorong are illustrative: communities already affected by conflict now face prolonged droughts, lost crops and dwindling water resources. In 2022, more than 32 million people have suffered the combined effects of conflict and climate disasters, with a particularly severe impact for African countries.
The UNHCR report highlights how the voices of refugees and host communities are often overlooked in international debates. “I hope the testimonies of people in this report help decision makers understand that if left unaddressed, forced displacement and the multiplier effect of climate change will worsen. But if they listen to us, we can be part of the solution too,” Dorong added.
The problem of climate finance
The inequity of funding is one of the most worrying aspects. The report highlights that the most fragile countries they receive just $2 per capita for climate adaptationcompared to the 161 dollars allocated to the most developed countries. Even when the funds arrive, over 90% is spent in capital cities, neglecting peripheral areas, where the climate impact is most felt. On average, between 2010 and 2022, only 20% of global climate finance reached least developed countries, helping to maintain an ever-widening resilience gap.
