First week of the failed COP30, there is an issue that blocks everything: who pays to save the climate?

The first week of the COP30 in Belém ended on Friday with a worrying picture: while negotiations are progressing slowly inside government buildings, in the streets of the Amazonian city thousands of people marched to demand that the promises are finally transformed into concrete facts. The Global Carbon Project released alarming data right at the start of the conference: CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach a new peak in 2025, further moving away from the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5°C.

The president of COP30, André Corrêa do Lago, presented a plan to relaunch the work in the second week, structured on three axes: ministerial talks on the most politically thorny issues, continuation of technical work and consultations on cooperation. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, made a direct appeal to governments: “They must give more. Climate finance is the lifeblood of climate action. Without it, implementation slows, ambition falters and progress for all becomes much, much more difficult.”

The issue that blocks everything: who pays to save the climate

The financial issue represents the real breaking point. The “Road to Belém” path, launched after COP29 in Baku, plans to mobilize 1,300 billion dollars a year from the North to the South of the world by 2035. A figure that will allow the poorest and most vulnerable countries to adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis, compensate for losses and damages, and reduce their emissions. The problem? It means multiplying the current funding levels by seven, which are stuck at 190 billion in 2022.

Sara Sessa, Fridays for Future activist present in Belém with the Kyoto Club delegation, highlighted the critical issues that emerged: “It is not only the budget figures to be allocated that are decisive, but also the methods of disbursement of funding. The Brazilian presidency has repeatedly reiterated the need to include the private sector more in financial efforts, a prospect that worries civil society entities that ask for public and non-repayable funding”.

The divergence is clear: industrialized countries push for greater involvement of private capital, while the global South claims public resources without repayment constraints. A fracture that risks compromising the entire framework of the Paris Agreement.

Indigenous peoples: present but invisible

Another theme characterized the first week: the exclusion of indigenous peoples from decision-making processes. Despite massive participation, representatives of native communities do not have the right to vote at the negotiating tables. The protests culminated on Tuesday, when numerous communities attempted to break into the blue zone to denounce this exclusion.

“Indigenous participation is very vast, even if not even this COP has really managed to include the defenders of the territories in the official decisions,” explained Sara Sessa. “Protests are flourishing in the rooms, culminating on Tuesday in the attempt by indigenous communities to storm en masse into the blue zone, to denounce how they still do not have the right to vote at the negotiating tables”.

During the “Great People’s March” that passed through Belém, Txai Suruí, a young indigenous leader, told AFP: “We are here to try to put pressure” and prevent “backtracking” from the commitments made. Benedito Huni Kuin, of the Huni Kuin people, added: “Today we are experiencing a massacre, with our forest being destroyed. We want to make our voice heard from the Amazon and demand results.” Protesters held a symbolic funeral for oil, gas and coal, waving coffins with the names of the three fossil fuels.

Ambitious goals and insufficient reality

In his opening speech, Brazilian President Lula had set a clear objective: to close COP30 with a road map for a progressive exit from fossil energy, with concrete dates and commitments. No more vague formulas like “phase down” or “transitioning away”. But the road appears to be uphill.

The emissions reduction promises (NDC) presented so far by 114 countries are completely insufficient to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. 80 nations are missing. Some delegates even proposed abandoning the explicit reference to the 1.5°C target, while keeping open the possibility of reaching 2 degrees. A worrying sign of how ambition is giving way to political realism.

On the deforestation front, a partial result arrived with the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, an innovative mechanism that raised 5.5 billion dollars thanks to 53 nations to protect one billion hectares of tropical forests in over 70 developing countries.

A significant innovation concerns the fight against climate disinformation. For the first time in the history of the COP, thirteen countries have signed a declaration establishing international commitments to promote correct, science-based information. Italy is not among the signatories. As Audrey Azoulay, director general of UNESCO, underlined: “Without access to reliable news on the climate crisis, we can never hope to succeed.”

The second week opens with a “Mutirão”, a collective mobilization at ministerial level. Lula is considering returning to Belém personally to give new impetus to the negotiations. The impression is that the Brazilian presidency is serious. But between insufficient promises, divisions over funding and excluded voices, the challenge appears immense. The Planet observes, while time passes.