The 98th edition of the Academy Awards will be held on the night between 15 and 16 March at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, and the ceremony promises to be one of the most hotly contested in recent years. Two films, same studio, destinies that have crossed for months: on the one hand Sinners – The Sinners by Ryan Coogler, on the other One Battle After Another by Paul Thomas Anderson. Both produced by Warner Bros., both convinced they deserve the heaviest statuette.
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When and where to follow it in Italy
The ceremony will be broadcast live on Rai 1 with “Oscars – La Notte in Diretta”, broadcast on Sunday 15 March starting at 11.30 pm, hosted by Alberto Matano. Connecting from the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, correspondent Mattia Carzaniga will report in real time on the atmosphere of the 98th edition. The Red Carpet starts from 11.30pm/12.00am, while the official start of the ceremony is set for 1.00am Italian time.
If you don’t think you can last until dawn, RaiPlay will upload the highlights, the winners’ speeches and the full ceremony on-demand from the morning of Monday 16 March. Abroad, live is on ABC and — for the first time — streaming simultaneously on Hulu for subscribers.
The record of Sinners and the news of the Best Casting
Sinners earned 16 nominations, a historic achievement that surpasses the previous record of 14 nominations held by Titanic, La La Land and All About Eve. Coogler’s film also carries with it the pressure of a symbolic milestone: a win would bring a black woman to the Best Picture podium for the first time — producer Zinzi Coogler — and could earn Ryan Coogler his first directorial Oscar.
The 2026 edition also introduces something new in the history of the Academy Awards, given that for the first time the prize for Best Casting will be awarded, designed to enhance the work of casting directors, fundamental figures in the construction of a film but who have so far remained outside the awards system.
Best Film: an unprecedented duel
American experts agree on the unpredictability factor, never as strong as on this occasion. According to Gold Derby, which aggregates the predictions of experts, editors and users with the best historical results, One Battle After Another leads with a 76% chance for Best Picture. Consensus projections from the site Next Best Picture confirm the same order, with Sinners close behind.
The problem is that the numbers clash with history. One Battle After Another it has won Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA and WGA, plus at least one SAG award: no film that has gone down this path has ever lost the title of Best Picture. Sinnersat the same time, holds ACE, SAG ensemble and WGA, and no film with this combination has ever lost, therefore, on Sunday night one of the two records will fall.
If Gold Derby’s predictions prove correct, the two films would end up tied, with five Oscars each: One Battle After Another favorite for Best Film, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor (Sean Penn), Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing; Sinners ahead for Best Leading Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Original Screenplay, Best Casting, Best Cinematography and Best Soundtrack.
The acting categories: three out of four in the balance
The only practically absolute certainty concerns Jessie Buckley. Gold Derby gives her a 97% chance for Best Female Lead Actor with Hamnet – In the name of the sona percentage that in practice equates to a certainty.
Everything else is open. For Best Actor in a Leading Role, Timothée Chalamet led with a nearly 48% chance for Marty Supremewith Michael B. Jordan at 36% for Sinners. The season, however, has already reversed this order once: when Chalamet lost to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards on March 1, the race suddenly reopened: according to Gold Derby, Jordan is now the favorite, with 60%, while Chalamet follows with 27.5%.
For Best Male Supporting Actor, Sean Penn started as the dominator of the season thanks to the role of the villain in Anderson’s epic, then lost ground by losing at the Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, but returned to the top with victories at the BAFTA and the Actor Awards, and today he is considered the favorite ahead of Stellan Skarsgård (in the running with Sentimental Value). The Penn issue is also of a media nature: the actor doesn’t like to campaign for awards and didn’t show up to collect any of the latest awards. A third statuette would put him in the company of Walter Brennan, Meryl Streep and Daniel Day-Lewis.
For Best Female Supporting Actor, Weapons’ Amy Madigan won at the Actor Awards and Gold Derby gives her about a 57% chance of winning.
The other categories
Outside the main dispute, some races already seem closed. Netflix takes home Best Animated Film and Best Original Song with KPop Demon Huntersthe platform’s most watched original film ever. Frankenstein by Guillermo del Toro is instead favored for the technical-creative awards: Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyle, Best Production Design.
For Best International Film, Next Best Picture is the favorite Sentimental Value (Norway), followed by The Secret Agent (Brazil) e It Was Just an Accident (France). No Italian films in the running, with Family by Francesco Costabile who did not make the final shortlist.
How could it go
The evening will probably begin by immediately revealing the cards in the technical categories. If Sinners were to win Best Casting and Cinematography in the early hours, a comeback for Best Film would become concretely possible. If instead One Battle After Another were to dominate the craft categories together with Anderson’s direction, the main statuette would be almost armored.
Conan O’Brien will return to host for the second consecutive year, with the promise of a high-paced evening. In Italy, Alberto Matano and the Rai team will keep the insomniacs company until dawn — when the Best Film name will most likely close one of the most balanced Oscar seasons in recent decades.
